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UPDATED 7.15 pm GMT Will a new President be sworn in here on Jan 20 2005? With only hours to before polls close on the East coast the Iowa Electronic Exchange still has Kerry and Bush almost level-pegging. The Tradesports exchange has moved sharply to Bush. It’s hard to work out whether this is based on subjective market sentiment or real hard information. The Iowa price, as the Economist pointed out this week, might be slightly artificial because punters are…

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It’s down to Florida and Ohio With the polls showing it’s neck and neck the rush to back Bush has continued on both sides of the Atlantic and he is still the firm favourite that he was this morning. These are the latest polls. Bush 48.7 Kerry 49.5 D Corps Bush 49 Kerry 49 Gallup Bush 51 Kerry 48 Pew Normally with an election so close you would expect this to be reflected in the betting. But not so in…

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But will the Dow and the Redskins have it right? With just a day to go the polls have it as a dead heat but political gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic are putting their money behind George Bush. The “gambling” lead that emerged after the Osama video on Friday has been sustained and looks as though it is getting tighter. Gallup, the pollster which had been recording bigger Bush margins than the others, now has it as a…

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http://www.econ.umn.edu/~amoro/Research/presprobs.html As we move into the final thirty-six hours can we recommend this site which brings polls, electoral vote predictions and Tradesports prices all together. Everything is moving so fast and Betfair alone has now seen more than £4m of matched bets on the race. Bush 55.5 Kerry 44.5Iowa Political Futures Market Bush 54 Kerry 46 Tradesports exchange Bush 1.71 Kerry 2.38 Betfair exchange Bush 3/5 Kerry 5/4 UK bookmaker best price Polling round-up showing variance of margin on last…

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Another video drives the markets Gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic have reacted in a fairly cool manner to the video tape of Osama Bin Laden that was released last night. There were sharp moves to Bush as people took the view that this would remind electors of the ever-present terrorist threat. Then there has been a gradual easing back after some commentators observed that Osama’s “return” was another reminder of a failure of the Bush administration to capture…

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Get your money on while there’s still value George Bush and John Kerry go into the final weekend of the 2004 Campaign with the polls, the betting and the electoral vote prediction on a knife edge. It should be hard to call but we are sticking with our long-standing view that more Americans want to get rid of George Bush than want to keep him. The Democrats are more hyped up even than the religous right (above). They still feel…

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