Iowa Electronic Market – Bush 51.5 Tradesports Bush 54.5

Iowa Electronic Market – Bush 51.5 Tradesports Bush 54.5


    Will a new President be sworn in here on Jan 20 2005?

With only hours to before polls close on the East coast the Iowa Electronic Exchange still has Kerry and Bush almost level-pegging. The Tradesports exchange has moved sharply to Bush.

It’s hard to work out whether this is based on subjective market sentiment or real hard information. The Iowa price, as the Economist pointed out this week, might be slightly artificial because punters are restricted in the amount they can invest. This is, after all, an academic exercise run by the State University.

In the UK William Hill reported a late surge of hefty bets for John Kerry. But Betfair has continued to make Bush the firm favourite – current price 1.77.

To get a real sense of what happening across the US today check out this site where 100s of ordinary voters are recording their experiences. All the signs are that this will be a massive turnout.

Prices on John Kerry on the Iowa “political futures market, the experimental exchange run by the State University, are running at 50-50. The UK betting exchange, Betfair has it at Bush 1.71 Kerry 2.38.

If the pollsters are as accurate in predicting this White House race as they were four years ago then the challenger, John Kerry, will win easily today to become the next President of the United States.

    We first called for John Kerry on May 18 2004 and we stick with our call.

Bush’s inability to build up a big lead over the challenger leaves him very vulnerable and with record turnouts predicted the momentum is with the challenger. All the signs from early voting and voter registration should be worrying for the President.

Four years ago the polls gave it overwhelmingly to George Bush. In fact Al Gore won on the popular vote. These were the final polls in 2000.

  • Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gore 46% Bush48% Pro-Bush 2%
  • Pew Research Gore 47% Bush49% Pro-Bush 2%
  • IBD/CSM/TIPP Gore 46% Bush 48% Pro-Bush 2%
  • ICR/Politics Now Gore 44% Bush46% Pro-Bush 2%
  • NBC/WSJ Gore 44% Bush47% Pro-Bush 3%
  • ABC/WashPost Gore 45% Bush48% Pro-Bush 3%
  • Battleground Gore 45% Bush50% Pro-Bush 5%
  • Harris Interactive Gore 47% Bush 47% Even
  • Zogby Gore 48% Bush 46%. Pro-Gore 2%
  • CBS Gore 45% Bush44% (-4%) Pro-Gore 1%
  • Harris (Phone) Gore 47% Bush47% Even
  • There are different pollster this time and many more surveys are taking place. Today’s national polls are here and show a much different picture than in 2000.

      Kerry is either in the lead or it’s level pegging with nowhere near the number of surveys, as last time, showing, wrongly as it turned out, that Bush would win most votes.

    The betting, meanwhile has moved to Kerry.

  • Iowa exchange Kerry 50 – Bush 50
  • Tradesports bettting exchange Bush 55.5 Kerry 44.5
  • Betfair Bush 1.77
  • UK prices Bush 4/6 Kerry 5/4.
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