Will the pollsters be as wrong as they were in 2000?

Will the pollsters be as wrong as they were in 2000?


    Is the pro-Bush bias repeating itself?

With a daily diet of more than thirty new state and national polls predicting very different outcomes the big betting decisions are going to be based on which polling organisations have got it right. To guide us these were the final polls from 2000 to test against the actual result – which had Bush and Gore on 48% each.

SEVEN final national polls had Bush upto 5% ahead. WRONG
TWO final polls showed Bush & Gore level. RIGHT
TWO final polls showed Gore upto 2% ahead. WRONG – but Gore did get most votes.

Site users don’t need reminding that Gore won on the popular vote but Bush got most electoral votes.

2000 White House Race Final Polls

  • Zogby Gore 48% Bush 46%. Pro-Gore 2%
  • CBS Gore 45% Bush44% (-4%) Pro-Gore 1%
  • Harris (Phone) Gore 47% Bush47% Even
  • Gallup/CNN/USA Today Gore 46% Bush48% Pro-Bush 2%
  • Pew Research Gore 47% Bush49% Pro-Bush 2%
  • IBD/CSM/TIPP Gore 46% Bush 48% Pro-Bush 2%
  • ICR/Politics Now Gore 44% Bush46% Pro-Bush 2%
  • NBC/WSJ Gore 44% Bush47% Pro-Bush 3%
  • ABC/WashPost Gore 45% Bush48% Pro-Bush 3%
  • Battleground Gore 45% Bush50% Pro-Bush 5%
  • Harris Interactive Gore 47% Bush 47% Even
  • There are different pollster this time and many more surveys are taking place. Today’s national polls are here.

    The UK prices and Tradesports have moved a notch to Bush. Iowa has moved a bit back to Kerry.

  • Iowa exchange Kerry 41.7 – Bush 58.3
  • Tradesports bettting exchange Bush 60 Kerry 40
  • UK prices Bush 8/15 Kerry 8/5.
  • images www.vineyardboise.org/publications/articles/2000/quarter_4/images/bush_gore.jpg

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