Tomorrow is a massive day in US politics when the former president goes on criminal trial in New York for actions in the WH2016 when it is alleged he paid Stormy Daniel to keep quiet about their relationship. He is the first former American president ever to go on criminal trial and undoubtedly what happens will divide the nation. That he could have been indicted is extraordinary and no doubt every effort will be made to ensure there won’t be…
I really like this polling question which I have seen before but not for a long time. The format gives us a sense of the direction of travel and potential for tactical voting As can be seen the Tory vote from the last election is more likely to dissipate to other parties, particularly Labour, compared with when this question was asked of supporters of Starmer’s party. One of the the challenges for LAB at the moment is that they have…
Earlier on this week The Times reported that Labour will target Humza Yousaf’s Glasgow Pollok seat with a message that he lives 80 miles from the constituency, in an attempt to undermine his election campaigning. Pollok is among the areas where Labour is delivering direct mail shots to try to capture voters who have previously backed the SNP as part of a campaign to exploit the divisive leadership election. Yousaf’s home is in Dundee and he must now spend much more time…
When it became apparent that Donald Trump was going to be indicted I predicted that this would simultaneously solidify Trump’s hold on the GOP nomination whilst weaken Trump’s chances of winning the Presidency next year. The first part of that prediction is coming true based on this YouGov poll. I had a hunch that GOP voters would see this as the greatest sham trial since Jesus was taken before Sanhedrin then Pontius Pilate which would boost Trump. I suspect the…
If he remains healthy the 80-year-old will get it I have generally been very skeptical of Biden’s chances of being the WH2024 nominee once again but he clearly wants it and the big question is whether his health will hold. Whatever this will be the big media focus and any hint of him not being up to it healthwise will come under a lot of media scrutiny. The polling finds most Democrat voters looking at him favourably but not wanting…
This is from the New York Times: After a brief hiatus, The Trump Show is back. Americans, ready or not, are now along for another roller-coaster ride with a protagonist whose pre-eminence in the media universe had begun to fade.”..Banned from Twitter, Mr. Trump’s outbursts and grievances had stopped shaping the news cycle. Out of office, he became inherently less newsworthy. He even vanished from Fox News, his usual television home, for about four months beginning in November.”. Now Mr….
The above podcast came out yesterday and the polling in it looks interesting and should be of some concern to Labour particularly the comments in relation to Starmer. Already the blue attack machine is trying to get its teeth into him. Remember that the way the Tories win general elections is by attacking and undermining the LAB leader. Just ask EdM. Last time this was easier because of Corbyn. One thing that should be noted is that Labour needs to…
Over the past few weeks we have seen extraordinary TV pictures from France of the demonstrations that are taking place against the decision by the Macron government to try to increase the pensionable age up from 64. The anger is enormous as well as the scale of the protests which are far bigger than what we have seen in the UK. I find it quite remarkable that the French are trying to preserve a punctual age of 64 while in…