politicalbetting.com

It is looking very likely that there will be a by-election in the Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton constituency following investigations into a series of lockdown violations by the sitting MP. She is still there but her political future does not look good because the committee which has looked at the matter is calling for a four weeks suspension which would trigger a by-election. The seat has a checkered history of flipping between Labour and the SNP and it…

Read More Read More

My best guess is late autumn next year One of the things about British politics at the moment is that there is little speculation about when Sunak will decide to go to the country. Normally in the fourth year after an election, you would expect that to be happening. The Tory majority is large enough for Sunak not to be concerned and he will go when the time is right for his party and his chances. He’ll also want to…

Read More Read More

Earlier in the month it will be recalled Keir Starmer ruled that Corbyn should not be a LAB candidate at the next general election. This has led to much speculation that he might seek to re-enter parliament by fighting without his party’s backing. That would mean he would have to leave the party as would those who members who supported his campaign. It is just possible that we could end with a situation where Corbyn is standing against the official…

Read More Read More

Could SLAB be the top party once again? The above is from the excellent Commons library report and analysis of the 2019 General Election and shows some of the charts in relation to Scotland. This illustrates the huge turbulence there has been in Scottish politics in recent years triggered off by the Indtef in September 2014. The SNP has been totally dominant ever since but it is clear that that situation is not going to continue and I wonder whether…

Read More Read More

The headline I thought I’d never write One of the big political stories of the week has been the series of YouTube interviews commissioned by the campaign group Led led Donkeys into the reaction of a senior Conservatives to a suggestion that they might like to work for a Korean Consulting firm as part of its European advisory board The aim of the interviews has been to establish what sort of price they will be seeking to have a role…

Read More Read More

It has been widely reported that the prime minister sees solving the small boats issue as being an essential plank in his efforts to hold onto power at the next general election. But is it really the policy area that is most likely to attract support from those voters the poll suggest the Tories have lost since the last election. What I find remarkable about the YouGov polling above of is how views of the small boats policy and the…

Read More Read More

How punters have viewed his chances From the perspective of those who bet on politics. this makes an interesting betting chart showing how the former PM and GE2019 winner declined in the Conservative leader at the general election betting. What I find remarkable now is how strongly his chances were perceived during 2021 when of course he was prime minister. The surprising thing at the moment is that he should still be rated by punters as a 7% chance. He…

Read More Read More