NOP survey finds just one single UKIP supporter

NOP survey finds just one single UKIP supporter

Crosby campaign consolidates the Tory right flank An extraordinary aspect from the detailed data of today’s NOP survey in the Independent is that support for UKIP has all but disappeared. According to Anthony Wells at UK Pollingreport the pollster found just one person – specifically a woman between the ages of 35-44 living in the London region – who said she was voting for the party that secured more than 16% of the vote in last year’s Euro Elections. Ever…

Read More Read More

Does publicity about your sex life win or lose votes?

Does publicity about your sex life win or lose votes?

Will Boris and Blunkett be punished for the Spectator affairs? Two new seat markets just out feature the two front benchers – David Blunkett and Boris Johnson – who resigned their positions in the wake of huge press coverage about their private lives. Interestingly both resignations were linked to the right-wing magazine, the Spectator. Boris is of course the editor and David Blunkett had an affair with the journal’s publisher. For Henley Skybet are offering 2/7 on Johnson’s majority increasing…

Read More Read More

Labour’s NOP lead more than halved

Labour’s NOP lead more than halved

Did Tony Blair call it wrongly on the terror bill? The first poll since last week’s parliamentary battle on the terror laws shows a big move to the Tories. NOP’s monthly poll for the Independent has with changes from their poll a month LAB 39(-3): CON 34% (+4): LD 19%(+1). The survey was carried out between Friday and Sunday, so would have been mainly in the aftermath of the Parliamentary battle. Last week the view was that Tory and Lib…

Read More Read More

Are there votes for Michael Howard on abortion?

Are there votes for Michael Howard on abortion?

Will the Cardinal’s backing help the Tories? According to the Times this morning the Catholic Church has made “a dramatic entry into the election campaign by backing Michael Howard’s stance on abortion and withdrawing its traditional support for Labour.” The report says that the Archbishop of Westminster, Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O’Connor, ensured that abortion would play a greater part in the coming election than any other by praising the Tory leader’s call for a cut in the legal abortion limit from…

Read More Read More

Labour up 4% in one Scottish poll – but down 10% in another

Labour up 4% in one Scottish poll – but down 10% in another

A very confused picture of what is happening north of the border has emerged from two almost totally contradictory opinion polls. One survey by System 3 in the Sunday Herald has the following with changes from the last survey in February LAB 46(+4): SNP 23(+1): CON 16%(+1): LD 13%(-2). But another survey by Scottish Opinion in the Sunday Mail has the following: LAB 38(-10): SNP 16 (-4), LD 23 (+12), CON 15 (-3). So every party that is going up…

Read More Read More

Is now the time to bet on Labour?

Is now the time to bet on Labour?

Has it all been set up so Gordon can come to the rescue? Anybody thinking of backing Labour on the Commons spread markets should do it before the budget while prices are at their current levels. Because the perception is that Labour’s campaign is going poorly there’s been a steady decline in the party’s price which is now 9-10 seats down on the end of January. The current spread prices are totally out of kilter with what the opinion polls…

Read More Read More

Our best General Election Bets

Our best General Election Bets

Although the main issue of which party will win most seats is almost a foregone conclusion there are a number of bets about where the chances of it happening are better, in our view, than the odds being quoted by the bookies. Lib Dems to get more than 70 seats. Charles Kennedy’s party poll rating is a third to half better than it was at this time before the last election and all the experience is that they will pick…

Read More Read More

Blair in trouble with women – ICM Poll

Blair in trouble with women – ICM Poll

But good news for Charles Kennedy Women voters have turned against Tony Blair according to an ICM poll for tomorrow’s News of the World. The main points:- Fewer than one in 10, (9%), say he should fulfil his pledge to serve a full third term as Prime Minister if re-elected. A quarter say he should go before the poll, expected on May 5. Almost one in three, (29%), say he should quit immediately. While 62% of women see Mr Blair…

Read More Read More