AMENDED Seven out of eight seats change hands With a May 5th election just 47 days away the results from last night’s local by-elections show six of the eight seats changing hands. The Lib Dems win four and lose two Labour win one and lose three The Tories win two and lose one In two seats the turnout was above 40%; in three it was in the 30s; and in three seats it was in the 20s. These seem very…
An academic challenge to received opinion Anybody considering placing a bet on the Commons seat markets should check out this New Statesman article by the Nottingham Univiersity academic, Philip Cowley, before parting with their money. In it he challenges current received opinion that Labour is heading for a comfortable majority. He has an analysis of opinion poll overstatement of the Labour margin that will be familiar to regular users of this site. Where he gets really interesting is in his…
YouGov poll gives big boost to Gordon Brown With the first poll on the budget showing a generally favourably response for its contents and for Gordon Brown in particular the big media focus has been on Labour’s “£35bn Tory Tax-Cuts” claim and the respective merits of the Chancellor and the Prime Minister. According to the YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph, 63 per cent see Mr Brown as an “asset” to Labour compared to 34 per cent for Mr Blair….
We have received an unconfirmed report about a new poll on the voting intentions of UK students that it is said will be published in the Times Higher Educational Supplement tomorrow. The figures we have with changes on a simillar poll last month are LD 39 (+2) : LAB 29 (-4): CON 24 (+4) . So the Lib Dem lead over Labour has increased by 6%. It’s also interesting that the Tories are doing quite well amongst a group not…
Which way is the Sun going to jump? Probably the best way of assessing reaction to the budget is to look at how the Sun and the Mirror are covering it. In spite of its opposition to the war the Mirror is solidly back behind Labour and will do everything in its power to help get the party’s ‘s core vote out on the day. It’s “Mr. Incredible” front-page sets the tone and the only question is whether this is…
Will the Lib Dem leaners stick with Labour? After all the hype during the build-up what will be the impact of Gordon Brown’s ninth budget on the coming General Election? Has he done enough to reinforce Labour’s existing position and ensure that Tony Blair is return with a substantial majority? In short – will more people put their crosses against their Labour candidate’s name on May 5 than might have been predicted beforehand? The big electoral question is what will…
First reactions from punters to Gordon Brown’s ninth budget have been fairly muted. These are the latest prices compared to first thing this morning. IG Index – LAB 349-354 (n/c): CON 199-204 (-1): LD 68-71 Spreadfair – LAB 351.2 -351.9 (-0.1): CON 200-201.9 (-1): LD 68.5-69 (n/c) 5-10 pm UPDATE. There’s been no new price fix from IG but on the Spreadfair exchange the Labour price is going down as well. These are the latest. Spreadfair – LAB 350 (-1)…
How will the betting markets look after the budget Just seven weeks to go to a May 5th election and the contest has started to attract the attention of serious punters. One high roller on Monday “sold” Labour at £1,000 a seat at 350 seats – IG Index’s biggest General Election bet so far. If Tony Blair’s party does as well as last time then this punter could lose (400-350) * £1000 = £50,000. On the other hand if Labour…