Has it all been set up so Gordon can come to the rescue?
Anybody thinking of backing Labour on the Commons spread markets should do it before the budget while prices are at their current levels. Because the perception is that Labour’s campaign is going poorly there’s been a steady decline in the party’s price which is now 9-10 seats down on the end of January.
The current spread prices are totally out of kilter with what the opinion polls are saying. The Martin Baxter seat calculation based on his “poll of polls” is showing a Labour majority of 130. Yet the spread prices have slipped to the point where the predicted majority is barely 60.
IG Index spreads are LAB 350-356: CON 198-204: LD 68-72.
Spreadfair has LAB 352-354: CON 197.2-202.9: LD 68-69
On Thursday morning, the day after Gordon Brown’s budget, it could all look so different and this surely will be reflected in the prices. The Chancellor, who has been keeping a very low profile, will almost certainly present a budget that’s designed for the moment and will form the basis of the final seven weeks of this campaign – assuming May 5th is, indeed, the day.
Gordon Brown has been waiting a long time to become Prime Minister and he’s not going to blow his chances on Wednesday.
The transformed Tory machine under Lynton Crosby is going to face a real test dealing with Brown’s reminders of HIS successful management of the ecomony and HIS pre-election goodies. And, no doubt, all the Tory points about cutting waste to fund things will be trumped by what the Chancellor says.
If you are going to bet on Labour – now’s the time.
Â© Mike Smithson 2005