But good news for Charles Kennedy

Women voters have turned against Tony Blair according to an ICM poll for tomorrow’s News of the World. The main points:-

Fewer than one in 10, (9%), say he should fulfil his pledge to serve a full third term as Prime Minister if re-elected.

A quarter say he should go before the poll, expected on May 5.

Almost one in three, (29%), say he should quit immediately.

While 62% of women see Mr Blair as an experienced leader the number describing him as honest has fallen from 54% in 1997 to just 28%.

A total of 44% call him arrogant and more than half, 54%, say he is out of touch and unable to understand ordinary people

On Iraq 69% said Mr Blair had failed to bring peace and democracy to the country.

The only success he scored was on Europe where 52% said the PM had brought closer links.

Female voters are particularly important in determining elections as they tend to switch more between parties. Blair successfully wooed them as a personable, honest family man when he swept to power in 1997.

Change in women’s views of the most popular party leader compared with 2001
Tony Blair 30% (-13%)
Michael Howard 21% (+5% on Hague’s rating)
Charles Kennedy 24% (+12%)

There is no information in the news agency reports of the poll about the voting intention of those in the survey. ICM interviewed 542 women aged 18 and over on March 9 and 10.

© Mike Smithson 2005