William Hills make him only second favourite for his own job An evening of excitement following Charles Kennedy’s dramatic announcement about his drink problem and his desire for another contest has thrown open the betting. This complicated by the fact that the main markets that exist are on who will be the NEXT leader – not who will win this latest contest. William Hill have just announced a market on who will win this contest. On this Kennedy has been…
The Daily Telegraph is not happy It was this site in May 2005 that first talked of the Tories having a “clause 4 moment”. Then we used it in the context of choosing Ken Clarke which we thought would have “symbolic importance” because of the long Tory history of splits over the EU. The way that the new Tory leader has decided to make the NHS the subject of his first major policy pronouncement reflects his desire to make this…
Will weighting changes knock 2-3% off Labour’s position? With the chances of Labour winning most seats at the next election down to just 53% on the betting markets could we see further price changes if the polls continue to show a Tory recovery? The next scheduled poll is from Populus early next week and punters should treat the headline results with some care until we have had time to analyse the detail because we might be about to see a…
Would a local election disaster put added pressure on Blair? With leadership issues affecting all three main parties the local elections on May 4th could be crucial. Will the Cameron leadership come successfully through its first electoral test?; can Labour losses be restricted to acceptable levels? and will the Lib Dems continue to make advances in local government? In the four years since there were elections in most of the 6,000 or so council seats at stake the political climate…
Betting options dry up on Menzies If the reported plans of a “senior group of Lib Dem MPs” come to fruition then we could see Sir Menzies Campbell in place as Leader of the party within a matter of weeks. According to reports over the holiday weekend the party’s 64 year old Foreign Affairs spokesman is being lined up replace Charles Kennedy in a putsch. The idea is to present Kennedy with a list of signatures calling on him to…
A round-up of the main markets General Election – most seats. Normal bookmakers – LAB 4/7: CON 11/8. Betting exchanges – LAB 0.87/1: CON 1.16/1. IG Binary spread market. LAB 52-58: CON 42-48. Labour has eased considerably since the emergence of David Cameron and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat. On October 10th, we suggested in anticipation of the “Cameron media love-in, that people should sell Labour the exchange price stood at 0.57/1. General Election – Commons seat spreads. Cantor…
Gordon Brown is no longer the “grass is greener” alternative In its main editorial at the end of 2005 the Daily Telegraph speculates this morning about the possibility that next year could be a General Election year. It argues: “..Suppose that, at some stage in the coming 12 months, Tony Blair were to decide that he had had enough of the pettiness and contumely of domestic politics. Imagine that he were to seek a grander stage…that his place were to…
Kennedy’s secret critics fail to impress punters The Lib Dem leader’s firm post-Christmas response to those private critics who say, amongst other things, that he does not have the charisma of a Cameron or a Blair has reinforced the doubts of reluctant punters in the Next Lib Dem leader market. For in spite of all the coverage there has been very little betting on his replacement. Betfair’s market has seen just £5,302 in matched bets with barely £800 going on…