But are things really so bleak for “Teflon Tony” ? The chances of Tony Blair surviving until New Year’s Day 2008, as rated by gamblers on the “When will Blair go” markets, have again plummeted to the low 20s. They are not quite at the low they reached after November’s Commons defeat on the terror bill but they are getting quite near. But have gamblers got this one right? Given Blair’s stated intention of serving a full third term the…
Will Labour elect Brown even if the opinion polls are against him? From the way punters are reacting on the betting exchanges Labour’s big beneficiary from the emergence of David Cameron is that other Oxford-educated 2001 Commons’ entrant, David Miliband – the Minister of State for Communities and Local Government. The chart showing the implied probability of success based on the best betting exchange price and illustrates the move to Miliiband in the past month. He’s now at 7.2/1 and…
Who’ll be PB.C’s top forecaster of 2006? With so many question marks hanging over the UK domestic political scene it’s is going to be quite a challenge working out what is going to happen in the next twelve months. Will Blair and Kennedy go? Who will be the new leaders? Is the poll boost for Cameron’s Conservatives just a temporary thing or will it be sustained. All these issues and more are covered in our competition for the year which…
Maybe riding to work will get his leadership back on track? After his skirmishes with leading party MPs over the the past two weeks Charles Kennedy knows that when he returns to Westminster in the New Year he will be under the most intense scrutiny. Can he save his leadership? With the less than ringing endorsements from the top two in the betting to replace him, Menzies Campbell (11/8) and Mark Oaten (3/1), Kennedy has to establish quickly that he’s…
Can the Prime Minister survive 2006? It was Peter Oborne in the Spectator earlier in the month who observed that David Cameron and Gordon Brown had an extraordinary shared strategic purpose – they both want Tony Blair out as soon as possible. Brown’s desire to take what he regards as rightly his is probably the most documented political drama of modern times – and the longer he has to wait the greater the chance of something going wrong. Cameron’s desire…
Brown succession worries cause Balls price to ease One market we have not looked at for some time is “who will succeed Gordon Brown as Chancellor?” In one of those quirks that sometimes happen on betting markets the close Tory colleague of David Cameron, George Osborne is now 5/1. For Osborne to be Brown’s successor Tony Blair has to continue right up to the General Election, the Tories have to win, and David Cameron has to decide to leave Osborne…
PB.C Labour General Election Index down to 55% The spate of opinion polls following David Cameron’s election as Tory Leader of December 6th has reinforced the betting market assessment of Labour’s chances of winning most seats at the next General Election. From a peak of more than 66% during the Labour conference in September the implied probability based on best betting prices has now dropped to below 55%. Unless there is a Labour recovery in the polls in the New…
Guardian leader: “Get used to it: the Tories are back” The monthly ICM poll in the Guardian confirms the trend of recent other surveys and has Cameron’s Conservatives still ahead but doing even better against Gordon Brown. The shares compared with the last ICM poll nine days ago are CON 37 (nc): LAB 36 (+1): LD 21 (nc). But to the question of how people would vote if it was Cameron’s Tories against Brown’s Labour the split is CON 41…