What are we to make of Mori’s 9% Tory lead?

What are we to make of Mori’s 9% Tory lead?

Even if true Cameron would still not get a majority? With so many political developments taking place every new opinion is being put under great scrutiny and the latest, from Mori, has the biggest shock so far. If confirmed by other pollsters the change in opinion it represents could totally change the landscape of UK politics. For the poll in the Observer reports an astonishing turnaround in the fortunes of the Tories since David Cameron became leader. Mori’s “certain to…

Read More Read More

Why won\’t 24% of Labour supporters back Gordon?

Why won\’t 24% of Labour supporters back Gordon?

Is it because only they think he’s doing worse on the economy? While the big focus in the past few days has been on the Lib Dems the major leadership issue in UK politics is on Labour because who is chosen to succeed Tony Blair will almost certainly become Prime Minister. Charles Kennedy’s future has almost no impact on that one way or the other. The full data-set from Populus ‘s December Times poll that had Cameron’s Tories beating Brown’s…

Read More Read More

Tories take 2 point YouGov lead

Tories take 2 point YouGov lead

Kennedy’s personal ratings reach rock-bottom The latest Daily Telegraph YouGov poll, a little earlier this month because of Christmas, confirms the trend of recent surveys and gives Cameron’s Conservatives a 2 point lead over Labour with the LibDems at 18%. The vote shares with changes on the survey last weekend are CON 38%(+1): LAB 36%(nc): LD 18%(nc). This is the best YouGov performance for the Tories since May 2004 when the internet pollster had Michael Howard’s party on 40%. For…

Read More Read More

The next Lib Dem Leader – the betting begins

The next Lib Dem Leader – the betting begins

Your exclusive Politicalbetting form guide With Charles Kennedy’s battle to remain as leader of the Lib Dems still on a knife-edge national bookmaker has put his toe in the water and opened a market on who will succeeded him – whenever that happens. The prices are being offered by William Hill and we expect them to be available online. The Possible Runners: Menzies Campbell (dark blue suit, white shirt, yellow check tie) A thoroughbred and like the last victor from…

Read More Read More

Will Kennedy\’s leadership headache continue?

Will Kennedy\’s leadership headache continue?

Are colleagues ready to slam the door on him? All the focus today is on the Lib Dem leadership and how senior MPs respond to his challenge at an angry meeting of his Shadow Cabinet that if any of them have doubts they should ” come to him by tea-time today and say so.” According to the Times this morning:- “Facing an unprecedented crisis of confidence, the Lib Dem leader tried to stamp on speculation by urging his most senior…

Read More Read More

PB.C\’s Labour General Election Index down just 2 points

PB.C\’s Labour General Election Index down just 2 points

Populus gives Tories a 6% lead if Brown becomes Labour leader Our Labour General Election Index – showing the implied probability of the party winning most seats based on best betting prices – has moved just two per cent on the week in spite of all the hype associated with the change of Tory leader. We have restricted the graph to just the seven days since David Cameron was elected leader and, as can be seen, the change has been…

Read More Read More

Blair boosted by polls showing Brown as a vote loser

Blair boosted by polls showing Brown as a vote loser

PB.C’s Blair Survival Index rises to 28% The second poor poll rating in five days on how a Brown-led Labour party would do against Cameron’s Conservatives has led to changes in the betting markets on when the Prime Minister will stand aside. As the chart shows the implied probability of a post 2007 departure reflected by the way punters are risking their cash has moved sharply upwards as the whole UK political scene is re-assessed following the Tory changes and…

Read More Read More

Book now for the second PB.C party

Book now for the second PB.C party

The date-January 14th: The venue – a pub in Central London: The time – 6pm Thanks to the generosity of Tony Blair’s pollster, Philip Gould, we are able to announce the second Politicalbetting party. This will take place at a pub in Central London on Saturday January 14th from 6pm. The picture above shows Book Value (Philip Grant – the party organiser and the site’s stand-in editor) with Robert Smithson – my son who keeps the site going. This will…

Read More Read More