PB.C’s Blair Survival Index rises to 28%
The second poor poll rating in five days on how a Brown-led Labour party would do against Cameron’s Conservatives has led to changes in the betting markets on when the Prime Minister will stand aside. As the chart shows the implied probability of a post 2007 departure reflected by the way punters are risking their cash has moved sharply upwards as the whole UK political scene is re-assessed following the Tory changes and last week’s pre-Budget statement by the Chancellor.
With both YouGov and ICM now showing that a Brown-led Labour party would lead to a bigger lead for the Tories the main platform of the “Blair must go early” movement has been blown out of the water.
The whole thinking on the Labour leadership and succession is having to change as punters and others get their minds round the notion that rather than being an electoral asset Brown might be an electoral liability
YouGov on Tuesday had Cameron’s Tories beating a Brown-led Labour party by 38 to 33. Yesterday’s ICM poll put the shares at Tories 40 to 37 for Labour with the Chancellor at the helm. In both surveys these figures were worse than the standard General Election voting iintention. This flies in the face of every similar survey since the David Kelly death in July 2003.
How can you now push for Tony Blair to go early if that will result in Labour’s electoral prospects being even worse? The political terms of trade have changed.
Our chart is based on the price that you can get on Tony Blair still being at Number 10 on January 1st 2008 – less than twenty-five months away. Even though you would have to wait a bit to get your cash recent events make the current 2.5/1 price a bargain. What makes this attractive as a bet is the certainty that you will get your winnings if Tony Blair sees in the New Year on January 1st 2008.