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ICM give Tories their biggest share since 1993

10/12/2005 Editor

.. ICM and YouGov put the Tories into the lead Two new polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers show that the Tories are now ahead. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph has with changes on the last survey from the pollster in November CON 37%(+4): LAB 35%(-3)LD 21%(+2). YouGov has, with changes on the poll that was published in Tuesday afternoon CON 37%(+1): LAB 36%(nc):LD 18%(nc). For David Cameron and his team the ICM figures must be particularly pleasing. Excluding the extraordinary…

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Is Andrew Neil right about Kennedy going?

10/12/2005 Editor

Who would become the next Lib Dem leader? In his “This Week” programme on BBC 1 late on Thursday night the veteran political commentator and ex-Sunday Times editor, Andrew Neil, made this statement – â€œI have heard that Charles Kennedy will stand down at the Lib Dems Spring Conferenceâ€ This does not appear to have been picked up elsewhere and although there has been much discussion on the position of the Lib Dems in the David Cameron era the suggestion…

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Do Gordon\’s personality ratings matter?

9/12/2005 Editor

Can he win if people don’t like him? Tucked away in the YouGov poll that came out on Tuesday afternoon were some numbers that might be at the heart of the Labour succession and the 2009/10 General Election campaign. Electors might agree with Gordon Brown’s policies, they might respect him as a politician but they do not seem to like him. When asked whether four named politicians had “an attractive personality” the ratings were:- David Cameron 23%: Tony Blair 18%:…

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What\’s happened to Populus and the Times?

8/12/2005 Editor

Was the coverage of the poll that moved the markets a step too far? Since December 2002, almost without exception, the Times has published the regular Populus poll on the Tuesday of the first full week of the month. So far this December there has been no Populus poll in the paper and yesterday the BBC produced a survey from the pollster on the Today programme. Was that survey originally intended for the Times? Looking at the detailed data it…

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How was the Great Gamble for you?

7/12/2005 Editor

Did you cash in on Cameron? The Times leads this morning with the headline “The Great Gamble” but it’s not about betting but whether the Tory choice of David Cameron is going to work. For me “The Great Gamble” consisted of the scores of betting contracts I entered into on the contest since May. With Guido expressing concern about one of the markets that I called wrongly can I reassure those concerned about my financial welfare that Cameron’s victory left…

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YouGov: Cameron’s Tories 38 – Brown’s Labour 33

6/12/2005 Editor

Poll boost as Cameron starts the leadership cycle A YouGov poll taken yesterday and today for Sky News has with changes on the last survey from the pollster last month CON 36: LAB 36: LD 18 The survey comes on good day for the controversial internet pollster. YouGov’s final poll of Tory members for the leadership contest was within one per cent. To another question in in the latest poll “The next general election will probably not be held until…

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It was Newsnight wot did it

6/12/2005 Editor

The fourteen minutes that changed the shape of British politics If you want to find just how David Cameron managed to pull off his spectacular victory you need do no more than look again at the fourteen minute feature that appeared on Newsnight on BBC2 on October 3. For it was this report of a “focus” group staged by the US pollster Frank Luntz that did more, I contend, to boost the Cameron campaign than anything else during that week…

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PB.C Gordon Brown Index drops to 70.8%

5/12/2005 Editor

Punters continue to move away from the Chancellor Politicalbetting’s Gordon Brown Index based on the best betting prices on him becoming next Labour leader shows a further decline in gambling assessment of the implied probability of him doing it. The move coincides with this afternoon’s Pre-Budget statement when he had to concede that growth forecasts had been slashed to half the figure that he reported in March. From a peak of 80% in July this evening’s calculation puts the Index…

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