The 2006 Political Year – the starting prices

The 2006 Political Year – the starting prices

    A round-up of the main markets

General Election – most seats. Normal bookmakers – LAB 4/7: CON 11/8. Betting exchanges – LAB 0.87/1: CON 1.16/1. IG Binary spread market. LAB 52-58: CON 42-48.

Labour has eased considerably since the emergence of David Cameron and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat. On October 10th, we suggested in anticipation of the “Cameron media love-in, that people should sell Labour the exchange price stood at 0.57/1.

General Election – Commons seat spreads. Cantor Spreadfair has CON 260-267: LAB 296-303: LD 53-57

The Tory and Labour spreads continue to move towards each other. This is the first time since the General Election that the mid-point Labour seat number figure has been below 300

Next Labour leader Normal bookmakers – BROWN 1/8: CLARKE 12/1: MILBURN 14/1: MILIBAND 14/1. Betting exchanges – BROWN 0.47/1: CLARKE 25/1: MILBURN 17.5/1: MILIBAND 10/1.

On November 30th we said bet against (lay) Gordon Brown on the exchanges because we thought there was a good chance that he could go the way of Howard Dean and David Davis – other hot betting favourites who did not make it. Then the price was 0.36/1. Even at today’s level we think that this is value because of the Chancellor’s continued poor showing in the polls. With the Tories continuing to get mileage portraying the Chancellor as a “creature of the 1980s” we think that this polling trend will continue.

Next Lib Dem leader Normal bookmakers – CAMPBELL 11/10: OATEN 3/1: HUGHES 7/2. Betting exchanges – CAMPBELL 1.64/1: OATEN 4.5/1: HUGHES 5.6/1

Reports today suggest that Hughes is pulling out of the race so that an ultimatum can be given to Kennedy and that Sir Menzies Campbell will take over until the General Election. The only problem with this is that Oaten is said to be refusing to stand aside. The Campbell betting exchange price looks good value.

Have a happy New Year.

Mike Smithson

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