Could the collapse encourage a Campbell Coronation? The January Populus Poll is out in the Times this morning and shows CON 36 (+1): LAB 39 (+1): LD 16 (-3). So the big move since before Christmas has been away from the Lib Dems. This is likely to have a big impact on the party’s MPs as they consider whether to nominate another candidate so that there is a contest. Would a protracted leadership election provide a poll boost like that…
Revised YouGov figures reinforce their dilemma With Charles Kennedy calling for a contest to decide his replacement the party President, Simon Hughes, and the party’s Home Affairs spokesman, Mark Oaten have yet to say whether they want to fight Menzies Campell to join David Cameron and Tony Blair in the line line-up of main party leaders. With the best price available on Menzies Campbell being just 0.53/1 punters have made the 64 year old Edinburgh lawyer a strong favourite. His…
But why won’t the pollster answer any questions? The pollster for the Mail on Sunday, BPIX, reports a big drop in support for the Lib Dems in a survey this morning which is not available online. Its shares are with comparisons on the last published BPIX poll in November are CON 38 (+3): LAB 38(+1): LD 16 (-4). BPIX is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council and has never responded to my requests for information about…
…the General Election gap is closing While all the focus has been on the Lib Dem leadership the question of which party will win most seats at the General Election, as reflected by the best betting exchange prices, continues to see the Tories narrowing the gap with Labour. The current implied probability, based on best prices, has Labour on 53.7% and the Tories at 46.7%. Note that the betting is on which party wins most seats and not on whether…
Will he be returned uncontested? After this afternoon’s dramatic resignation from the Lib Dem leadership by Charles Kennedy the money has been going on the 64 year old ex-international sprinter, Sir Menzies Campbell to win the contest to replace him. Just two hours after Kennedy’s announcement the best bookmaker price available on Campbell was 8/15 with 0.51/1 being available on Betfair. Campbell is the only person to formally declare his candidature and has received endorsements by a number of senior…
Survey has Campbell 49%: Oaten 14%: Hughes 21% Any resididual hope that Lib Dem members might save the day for Charles Kennedy are dashed this morning in a YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph. In a survey restricted to just members of the party the provisional results show that 65% want a new leader for the General Election with just 27% saying he should stay. The poll is also a severe blow to leadership hopefuls Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten….
Take the 6/1 that Charles will survive until May 1st With the Lib Dem leader facing the threat of resignations from his Shadow Cabinet if he continues to hold onto his office one bookie is now taking bets on who will be leading the party on May 1st – the week of the local elections. Favourite is Menzies Campbell at 5/4 with the price of 7/2 for Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten. Charles Kennedy comes fourth in the betting at…
Under the heading “He’s finished as leader, and the party should tell him so” Peter Riddel writes in the Times:- “CHARLES KENNEDY is finished as Liberal Democrat leader. It is only a question of time. He put himself and his future before the long-term interests of his party. His decision to appeal over the heads of his 62 MPs to the 73,000 party members in the country on a “put-up-or-shut-up†appeal guarantees lasting bitterness and division, even if he wins…