In the article on the Guardian ICM poll on Tuesday I made certain comments in relation to getting data from the pollster ICM about a poll in the News of the World earlier in the month. I said that I had requested the full data-set which had not been forthcoming. It now transpires that the email address I used to contact Nick Sparrow of the firm was incorrect and did not get delivered. I also made the statement “ICM is…
Labour back in the lead even though the Tories make progress YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has the Lib Dems share dropping by 5 points with almost all of that going to Labour. The result is that while the Tories continue to make progress the major beneficiary of the problems in the Lib Dems has been Tony Blair’s party. The party shares with changes on last month are CON 39%(+1): LAB 40%(+4): LD 13%(-5). It should be noted that…
So what are we to make of the incident-packed Lib Dem leadership race now? Each day something new seems to be happening and keeping up with the betting has become a nightmare. After switching big funds into Hughes yesterday I became part of the exodus early this morning. In the aftermath of Mark Oaten I felt that the loser would be Hughes – only to have that view confounded by yesterday’s ICM poll. Now, as every bulletin focuses on this…
Will fellow Fife-MP, Ming, get a Dunfermline headache? In what must be one of the quickest by-elections ever to be called the voters of Dunfermline and West Fife will got to the polls on February 9 – just 34 days after the death of their sitting Labour MP Rachel Squire. Clearly Labour has gone for a snap election with the aim of stopping any band-wagon effect from the Lib Dems or the SNP. At the General Election there was a…
UPDATED 0832 Party President now back as firm second favourite An unusual online poll in the Guardian this morning should make good reading for the Lib Dem party president, Simon Hughes, in his bid to become leader. The pollster, which usually carries out phone surveys, used the internet to interview 90 Tory voters, 90 Labour, 90 Lib Dems and 23 who supported other parties to ask about their views of the three leadership challengers. The group split Hughes 51: Campbell…
THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CUT – A STATMENT WILL BE PUT ON THE SITE THE SITE DURING THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 28/29 The latest survey from ICM, has the following shares in its monthly survey for the Guardian – CON 37%(-2): LAB 36%(+1) LD 19%(-1). The comparisons are with the ICM News of the World Survey nine days ago. Surveying took place from Friday to Sunday so only about a third of those interviewed would have been aware of the…
Respect MP at 0.22/1 for the next Big Brother eviction In what looks like his first electoral test since taking Bethnal Green and Bow from Labour’s Oona King at the General Election George Galloway could be voted out of the Big Brother house on Wednesday. We do not normally cover “Big Brother” on PB.C and do not claim any expertise on the programme – but the role of Respect’s only MP puts this into the political arena and there’s little…
Last week’s odds on favourite now third in the betting Just a week ago the Lib Dem President, Simon Hughes was riding high in the betting and was odds on to become the next leader. Now all has changed as a result, apparently, of nothing that he said or did. It is just that the sentiment has moved away from him. Two things seem to have happened: the acting leader, Ming Campbell put up a reasonable performance at Prime Minister’s…