Sorry for the delay but here are some pictures from last weekend’s PBC party. If people could identify who is who in the comments I will fill in the gaps. Picture one– Iain Dale, David Davis’s chief of staff and owner of Politicos with, behind the beer glass, Guido. Picture two Picture three ? left and David Kendrick right Picture four – ??, Valerie and Tom Thumb Picture five Anthony Wells with Guido still trying to protect his identity!! Picture…
Could Huhne be the beneficiary? With the revelations in the News of the World about Mark Oaten and a rent boy and the admission by the party leader in the House of Lords, Lord McNally about his drinking problem it is not a good Sunday for the party. Given the circumstances of Charles Kennedy’s departure only fifteen days ago the question has to be asked about the damage this is doing. For all of this so quickly could make the…
The PB.C comment that could make me richer At 7.39 am on January 11th Alex posted this short comment on the site. It read simply “Apparently Huhne has 5 certain backers among MPs. Why is he still 200-1?” For gamblers like me there is something very seductive about a long-shot and within a few seconds of reading Alex’s comment I had taken the £20 bet at 200/1 that was available on the Betfair betting exchange as well as £22 at…
Meanwhile the money piles on Ming Less than 24 hours after having to pull out of the Lib Dem leadership race a bookmaker has opened market on whether Mark Oaten will retain his seat at the General Election. The opening prices are 4/7 that he will and 5/4 that he won’t. This is an interesting bet because if the Tories do manage to sustain a recovery then Lib Dem seats like Winchester could be vulnerable. Oaten is a formidable campaigner…
No sign yet of a let-up in the Cameron honeymoon In the first posting of 2006, just nineteen days ago, we noted that the Cantor Spreadfair General Election – Commons seat spreads market opened the year on CON 260-267: LAB 296-303: LD 53-57. Taking the mid-points the collective view of punters was CON 265.5: LAB 299.5: LD 55 seats. In this form of gambling the number of seats a party gets becomes like a share price. If you think that…
But punters are still backing Nick Clegg Our chart tracks the implied probabilities of victory based on the best betting prices over the past twelve days since Charles Kennedy decided to step aside. With Mark Oaten now out of the race the big question outstanding is whether it will end up a fight between the three who have already declared or could the young ex-MEP, Nick Clegg spoil the party. His price is down at 19/1 so he continues to…
Brown gains ground on Cameron For the first time since David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservatives Gordon Brown has achieved higher ratings in a poll than Tony Blair when set against the new Tory leader. This is a move that has gone on almost completely unnoticed apart from in Anthony Wells’s Polling Report. In figures that were not published at the weekend ICM had this split with Brown as leader compared with the main party selection: CON 38…
Are his supporters trying to influence the race through the betting? In the early hours of this morning there was a big move back to Menzies Campbell on the Betfair betting exchange and a major easing of the Simon Hughes price. From what I can ascertain there is no apparent reason – there does not appear to be anything in the papers. At 11pm last night Ming’s price was at about 1.62/1 with Hughes on 1.32/1. The latest price as…