What result does Labour want? With only hours to go before the polling booths open our latest betting price chart on the Cheadle by-election markets shows that the implied probablilty of a Lib Dem win in the eyes of punters and bookmakers has continued to decline. From an 88% chance of success just ten days ago the figures has slumped to 66%. So Charles Kennedy’s party is still the odds on favourite but there’s nothing like the confidence of the…
Tory leadership. BLACK=David Davis: RED=David Cameron: BLUE=Ken Clarke It’s now down to 2/5 on the Shadow Home Secretary Our new way of presenting betting odds charts in terms of implied probability has been warmly welcomed by site users including one Wat Tyler, the first person to comment on our Cheadle chart yesterday, who asked if we could do the same on the Tory leadership race. The best betting prices have seen a steady build-up of the David Davis position since…
Enter our Cheadle by-election competition From the betting perspective Thursday’s Cheadle by-election has been an absolute flop. Only one market has been available and that has been on the Betfair betting exchange where punters themselves offer odds without the intervention of a bookmaker. From the media perpsective there has hardly been any coverage apart from the speculation, which started here last Saturday, on what a Lib Dem defeat would mean for Charles Kennedy’s CV. The site, though, has been bubbling…
How punters are viewing the by-election With just two days to go before the first by-election of this Parliament the money seems to be following the Tories with some punters at least believing that the party might have a chance. The above chart shows the implied probability of a Tory win in Cheadle on Thursday based on the latest betting odds and is the first time we have used this format to show market moves. Until now whenever we have…
When will Blair go? On the morning of May 6th the future for Gordon Brown looked relatively straightforward. He had been loyal to Tony Blair during the election campaign and within a relatively short time, a year to eighteen months, he would get his reward. The deal in the Granita restaurant all those years ago would soon be reality. This was certainly how the betting markets viewed it. In that first post General Election week you could have got just…
Is the site influencing the events it covers? The cover story of this week’s Spectator is unashamedly based on the story and discussion here on June 9th when we looked at the impact of David Cameron’s Etonian background on the Tory leadership race. Good on the magazine for giving Politicalbetting full credit unlike many other parts of the media who pick up our stories. In the article Vicki Woods describes how she has moved from her original pro-Davis position and…
Could the by-election determine his future? With the build-up to the Olympic decision and the London bombs we’ve not really looked at the position of Charles Kennedy who only last week had to warn his fellow MPs about the whispering campaign against him. This was followed by last weekend’s Mail on Sunday investigation about the alleged “upgrades” he got on his honeymoon – though the very idea behind the story that somebody should think that the leader of the Liberal…
Cheadle by-election price – Lib Dem RED: Tory BLUE Is the outrage going to help the Tories? The above chart shows the dramatic movement in the odds on the Cheadle by-election yesterday before and after the bombing in London. This is on the Betfair betting exchange where individual punters back and lay without a bookmaker to set the prices. So far the Cheadle market has attracted very little intetest and even though there is less than a week to go…