Would a $60m February Obama total trump any victories today? One thing that we have not heard from the Obama campaign yet is how much money was raised in February and there’s speculation that this is being put on hold just in case Hillary is seen to have re-gained the momentum in today’s primaries. Her campaign has announced that she raised $35m during the month – a move that just brought a statement from Camp Obama that they had exceeded…
Was the LD survey designed to give the result the leadership wanted? My general suspicion of ALL privately commissioned polls has been reinforced by two surveys in the past 24 hours which relate to the big vote in the Commons tomorrow over whether there should be a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. This is an issue where the Lib Dem group of MPs could be decisive and the polls relate directly to them. One commissioned by the party from MORI…
Could Texas and Ohio dramatically change the narrative? After an extraordinary and intensive onslaught on Barack Obama on a wide range of fronts there’s just an indication tonight that those who’ve been preparing Hillary’s political obituaries might have to put their drafts on hold. For when a range of polls move in the same direction in the final hours before an election then it’s normally an indication that something might be happening. And that’s been the news today on the…
Well it made me laugh! Mike Smithson
Interesting article in the Guardian by the commentator who used to be one of his most enthusiastic supporters, Jackie Ashley. She believe that Brown is being too timid when it comes to picking fights and concludes: “…unless the prime minister has the courage to pick fights with powerful interests, then it really is all over. Labour’s assessment of the Tories as lightweight and meaningless is quite wrong. Cameron has won his advantage by taking some brave decisions, not by staying…
Could we be heading for a messy post-election row? With tomorrow’s vital Texas primary attracting a lot of betting interest and with the result looking as though it is on a knife-edge there’s a chance that we might see a huge betting row over who actually “wins” the state. For the contender who wins the most votes in the main election might end up with significantly fewer delegates because of the complicated rules This is because of the two stage…
With 65% after 20% counted, even 1.01 would have been a value bet Medvedev will be youngest President, may win all 84 regions of the Federation Now that voting has closed in Kaliningrad Oblast, the westernmost region of the Russian Federation’s 11 time zones, the exit polls have unsurprisingly proclaimed Dmitry Medvedev the winner by a landslide. Communist candidate Zyuganov is currently just below 20%, while Vladimir Zhirinovsky is at 12.5%. Medvedev’s current vote share is some six points below…
What Will London Tell Us About the Next General Election? Mike Smithson has written several excellent articles about the London Mayoralty this week, and I do not propose to add to them directly. My intention is to explore what the outcome will tell us about the next general election. Electoral history over the past 40 years suggests that the outcome of the London Mayoralty will be a good pointer to the outcome of the next election. London is politically volatile….