Is the biggest loser Nick Clegg? As reported in my second update on the previous thread I have just spoken to a journalist who had the embargoed Press Association story and he has corroborated the figures. Clearly these are sensational numbers and will put pressure on both Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg. At least Labour has the consolation that its vote stayed at the same level in the survey as in the last poll by the firm in August. For…
Could the “rumour” possibly be true? Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report is carrying a story that a rumour is going round that the latest Ipsos-MORI poll has C52-L24-LD12. If that is the case then it is pretty sensational. I’ve been trying to contact senior people at the firm but so far without success. I have enough respect for Anthony to know that he would have not published a rumour on his site without him having an inkling that there…
Or has the PM totally lost it with the electorate? The line that the Brown Bunker is arguing like mad is that their man is the only person who can steer the country through the stormy waters that are being faced as the world has to deal with the credit crunch. You can see why they are saying this – but what is the polling evidence? Just look at the table above from UK polling report showing every single published…
How can the rebellion progress without a cabinet minister? It seems to have been going on much longer but it is less than a week since Siobhain McDonagh (above) decided to put her job on the line in order to make Brown’s leadership an issue in the countdown to the Labour conference in Manchester in a week’s time. Since then others have followed while Labour’s NEC and the cabinet have come together to defend the leader that 313 MPs felt…
After storming forward in the betting following his Palin V-P pick and the convention the move to the Republicans has faltered as the above chart of Betfair prices converted to an implied probability shows. Before the weekend it looked as though the 72 year old Senator would be favourite in all markets. Now only the Dublin-based Intrade has him tighter than evens. The latest Iowa Electronic Market fix was at about Obama 56% to McCain’s 44%. Certainly McCain is still…
This quote from John Harrington referred to by Mr Jabberwock on the morning thread is quite timely and made me chuckly. For most of the day I’m in London for meetings and a CNN interview so won’t be posting normally until I return home tonight. Mike Smithson UPDATE: Scotland Office Minister, David Cairns, has resigned according to the BBC. Morus
“Were you one of the first or did you wait till the outcome was clear?” Spare a thought a thought this morning for Labour MPs as they agonise over what to do. Do they join the still handful of their colleagues who have taken massive risks with their careers to become part of the initial batch or do they wait and see? It’s a very hard call because like all rebellions there will come a moment when the outcome is…
Will it enable Obama to refocus more strongly on the economy? The economic and financial impacts of the failure of Lehman Brothers have been rippling outwards today as stock markets around the world are sharply down (with the FTSE dropping almost 4% and the Dow currently down about 2.5%). But what will be the political consequences of the events on Wall Street? With the polls and the markets narrowing in the White House race, is this one “event” that actually…