After storming forward in the betting following his Palin V-P pick and the convention the move to the Republicans has faltered as the above chart of Betfair prices converted to an implied probability shows.
Before the weekend it looked as though the 72 year old Senator would be favourite in all markets. Now only the Dublin-based Intrade has him tighter than evens. The latest Iowa Electronic Market fix was at about Obama 56% to McCain’s 44%.
Certainly McCain is still ahead in some polls but the edge appears to have gone out of his position – the result, perhaps, of the performance by Sarah Palin on her first big TV interview. McCain’s challenge is that he chose her and she has to look as though she is able to move into the top job at a moment’s notice.
My view was always that we would need to wait until two weeks have passed since the conventions before we can come to firmish views on the polls.