Will Gord really get a financial crisis poll boost?

Will Gord really get a financial crisis poll boost?

    Or has the PM totally lost it with the electorate?

The line that the Brown Bunker is arguing like mad is that their man is the only person who can steer the country through the stormy waters that are being faced as the world has to deal with the credit crunch.

You can see why they are saying this – but what is the polling evidence?

Just look at the table above from UK polling report showing every single published YouGov survey this year. Look at how Labour was averaging 33% (just three points down on its 2005 performance) right until the second week in March. Then look what happened then.

    For the immediate post-budget polls saw a step change in the way Labour and Brown were perceived and there has been no change since. It’s as though at the point – pinpointed in the table – the electorate gave up on Gordon.

Within a few weeks of that March 14th survey all the firms were following suit and since then they have been presenting a fairly standard picture.

Given that at that moment voters gave up on Gordon at that point and there is almost nothing he or Labour can do to remedy the situation. Particularly damaging is the widespread perception, fuelled by the 10% tax fiasco, that Brown does not have a coherent philosophy – all he wants to do is stuff the Tories.

So I don’t think the line from the bunker will work – as long as Brown is PM Labour is doomed. He’s simply lost the confidence of too many including, now, a growing number of colleagues in his own party.

I might be proved wrong but I don’t think so.

Mike Smithson

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