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I suspect for the new few months (if not years) we might see three parties oscillate in the polls given how close the top three are. It should worry Badenoch that there’s no evidence of a new leader bounce, I suspect if we see this type of polling happen long term then the parliamentary party will look at ditching her before the general election. Normally Labour polling on 26% would lead to leadership speculation but 26% now sees leads in…

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On Betfair Nigel Farage remains the favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as our next Prime Minister. I still think this is one of the greatest lays in betting history for the reasons I have indicated before.The value remains with the likes of Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, and other Labour cabinet ministers. TSE

I am delighted that a clear majority of Brits think Die Hard is NOT a Christmas film, confirming other polling we have seen. Vox populi, vox Dei. TSE

The Electoral Reform Society have modelled how July’s election would have looked under different voting systems, as we can see First Past The Post really flattered Labour. Regretfully they didn’t model using the Alternative Vote which seems a mistake considering Labour uses AV to elect their leaders and the Tories use a form of quasi-AV (the exhaustive ballot) to elect their leaders. Some key stats from the election are The key stats for me is ‘344 seats, out of the…

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TSE

Ladbrokes have a 2025 specials market up and to be honest this appears a good way to contribute to the Ladbrokes bonus fund. If I had to pick I’d go for the 20/1 on the zero by elections and maybe the 6/1 on 1 to 2 by-elections in 2025. TSE

So far Starmer is shaping up as the gravest disappointment since the second season of Westworld but there’s plenty of time for him to turn this around. It is supplementaries like this which explain why Labour are polling in the twenties. TSE

Over the last few days I’ve highlighted how Nigel Farage has become the favourite to be the next Prime Minister which I felt was wrong on a number of levels and the most seats betting market is further proof. The only way I could see Farage becoming Prime Minister after the next general election is if Reform won the most seats (I cannot see if he finished second behind the Tories then the Tories making him PM for example). If…

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