SkyNews Poll Tracker In which month do you think that at least two of the pollsters – MORI, ICM, YouGov, Populus and ComRes – will report Labour closer than 9%? April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 or beyond Give PB your assessment in this online survey We’ve had lots of debate recently about whether there could be…
Will an early poll follow on from the Labour surge? Although the chances of a 2009 election here in the UK may still be slim, by contrast the odds on one across the Irish sea have considerably shortened of late. Paddy Power had quoted 2009 at a meagre 11/10, but this has been slashed to just 1/2 in recent weeks. With Harper surviving the budget vote in Canada and Karamanlis still clinging on in Greece, Ireland is near the top…
How to improve your odds by combining bets Over the past few days Richard Nabavi has been alerting us to what seems to be a great betting opportunity by combining two bets – the 4/7 that William Hill Politics is offering on the Tories NOT getting 375 seats or more and the same odds that Ladbrokes are offering on the Tories getting an overall majority. This might sound a bit complicated so let’s go through what I’ve done this morning….
Observer Is Boris going to be a thorn in Dave’s side in the years ahead? What might be good economics is not necessarily always good politics, as the Conservative leadership are discovering over the issue of whether or not to implement Labour’s planned 2011 income tax rise of 45p for the top rate. Lord Tebbit, who prefers spending cuts to tax rises, may be a repeat offender on speaking out against party policy in recent years, but then he does…
CON 41(-3) LD 17(nc) LAB 30(+2) But is it because of a weightings change? The latest ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and reports a sharp change from the last survey from the firm nearly three weeks ago but brings ComRes into broad alignment with the other pollsters. So all the five polling organisations that cover UK political opinion have the Tories on 41 or 42% and Labour on between 30-32%. The only divergence comes with…
What are we predicting will happen in Wales? I’m back in the Land of My Fathers this weekend to watch the Wales v Ireland Six Nations decider, and to see my folks for Sunday Lunch on Mothers’ Day. As timing would have it, last week I made a vague promise to take a look at what might happen in Wales at the next General Election. Being London-based, I’m sure there is much news from the ground of which I’m simply…
Has he gone too far with his comments about Dave? We are getting to stage when almost every comment by a senior Labour MP is being looked at in the context of what might happen in the party after a general election defeat. And the latest “on stage”, as it were, is the Dagenham MP who built up his position in the party two years ago with good bid for the Deputy Leadership when he finished third, John Cruddas. For…
..and only 18% want to stick with Labour The Lib Dems were delighted on Tuesday when the latest Guardian ICM poll had them at 20% – well above the shares from other pollsters including, on that very day, just 14% with Ipsos-MORI. But I wonder how many in the party, particularly those at the top who occasionally give the impression that they are politics primarily because they hate the Tories, are going to view responses from those same LD supporters…