How to improve your odds by combining bets
Over the past few days Richard Nabavi has been alerting us to what seems to be a great betting opportunity by combining two bets – the 4/7 that William Hill Politics is offering on the Tories NOT getting 375 seats or more and the same odds that Ladbrokes are offering on the Tories getting an overall majority.
This might sound a bit complicated so let’s go through what I’ve done this morning. I’ve put Â£250 on each of these options and this is how it works.
Tories get less than 325 seats: I lose the Â£250 stake money on the “overall majority” bet but get a total return of Â£392.86 on the “Tories less than 375” seats bet. Outcome: Total Â£101.14.
Tories get more than 375 seats I lose the Â£250 stake money on the “Tories less than 375” but get a total return of Â£392.86 on the “Tory overall majority” bet. Outcome: Total loss Â£101.14.
Tories get 326 – 375 seats I win both bets. Total profit Â£285.72
Given that in last week’s PB survey 66% of respondents thought that the Tories would get a majority in this range my effective odds are 2.79/1. That looks great value.
The only down-side is that I have to tie up Â£500 of stake money for maybe a year and two months. But thanks to Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling the interest loss will be be much less than a fiver.
A great betting suggestion Richard. Well done.