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We’ve had lots of debate recently about whether there could be a recovery for Labour as we get closer to the election and there’s little doubt that at current poll levels the Tories don’t have that much of margin to be sure of an overall majority.
There’s also the news narrative element. The media loves to see movement and will magnify in its coverage any changes in whichever direction. We are all aware of Brown Bounce II yet perhaps it is worth recalling that even with all the media hype at the end of 2008 the Tories maintained a lead and only fell out of the 40s for about a month.
The question now is whether next week’s G20 meeting, the budget or something else could prompt a third Brown bounce. Is that going to happen? For increasing numbers of people betting as we get closer to the general election this could be critical. For there’s no point backing the Tories now, say, if you think their prospects could look less good in a few months time.
The collective opinion of the PB community might be a good measure – which is why I’ve devised this new online survey. If you don’t think that this is going to happen use the final option. My plan is to close the voting at about midnight.
Tonight PB Fifth Birthday Party I’ll be posting later about this but the organiser, Peter the Punter, has made provision for about 25 people to turn up on the night. If you are planning to go please get a message to him ASAP.