CON 41(-3) LD 17(nc) LAB 30(+2)
But is it because of a weightings change?
The latest ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and reports a sharp change from the last survey from the firm nearly three weeks ago but brings ComRes into broad alignment with the other pollsters.
So all the five polling organisations that cover UK political opinion have the Tories on 41 or 42% and Labour on between 30-32%. The only divergence comes with the Lib Dems where the range goes from 14% with MORI upto 20% with ICM. ComRes is virtually within the middle.
Like other recent polls there are good personal numbers for David Cameron. By 48-41 those interviewed though that he “had what it takes to be a good PM”.
My general concern over ComRes is the past vote weighting system which never seems to stay the same between one poll and another and which can have quite an impact on the headline figures. This contrasts with ICM, who operate in precisely the same way, but where the weighting numbers virtually never change.
Why the difference? I have pressed the firm but they always seem to fob me off.
I’m going to do a full piece on this.
Memo To Andrew Hawkins (MD of ComRes) You’ve had my email on this for nearly a month. Please can you respond or else I will publish my analysis comparing you and ICM anyway.
So overall the polling is showing the Tories still in the lead with a double digit lead – but it is narrower than it was and the margin is not that much above what is required for an overall majority.
0100 UPDATE I’ve posted at comment 261 on the ComRes weightings in this poll.