Bloomberg Could the crisis spark off an early general election? I don’t claim to be an expert in the financial markets but just how seriously should we take the news the the latest British bond fails to find enough buyers? It sounds awful – but is it? The idea that the markets will no longer fund the government is something that sounds coherent and most people will grasp it. The question whether or not it is serious? On Spectator Coffee…
How good is a 100/1 long-shot bet? At 10 pm last night, after an evening in which the right-wing blogsphere had been buzzing over a speech directly to Gordon Brown in the European Parliament yesterday by the Tory MEP, Daniel Hannan, our friend Shadsy, the political market maker for Ladbrokes, popped up with a great bet. He had a simple posting here: “If anyone does want to take a flyer on Hannan as next Tory leader, you can have 200/1…
STV News Remember the pollster’s 17% Labour lead in Glasgow East? Last July as the Glasgow East by election campaign was going into its final weekend there was a poll from a firm called Progressive Scottish Opinion suggesting that Labour had a 17% lead. On the following Thursday, of course, the SNP won. This had an immediate impact on the betting with the SNP price moving out and Labour becoming and even tighter odds-on favourite. For those who saw this…
PoliticsHome Marginals Survey September 2008 The PH polls says it’s a Tory gain – so why the long odds? Ever since general election constituency betting started in earnest I’ve been cross-referencing the available markets with last September’s Politics Home Marginals poll which surveyed more than 38,000 voters in 238 different seats. My hunt has been for value bets – good odds on a party named in the survey as the likely winner where perhaps the PH prediction is not the…
Opt2Vote Has postal voting made contracting out inevitable? Anybody who has an interest in the way elections are managed and operated should check out the website of Opt2Vote – a firm based in Londonderry in Northern Ireland which seems to have built up a thriving business on the back of Labour’s changes in the election system since 1997 – particularly with the big extension in postal voting. The scale of the firm’s role in UK elections is reflected in its…
Thanks to everybody for making the site what it is It’s exactly five years ago today that PB started and this evening there’s a celebration party in London. Thanks to Ladbrokes for their generous sponsorship of the wine. I’m off to the station shortly and am looking forward to meeting many of the PBers who regularly take part in our discussions. From the guest list we have a good mix of long-standing regulars, newer participants and those who, as they…
SkyNews Poll Tracker In which month do you think that at least two of the pollsters – MORI, ICM, YouGov, Populus and ComRes – will report Labour closer than 9%? April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 or beyond Give PB your assessment in this online survey We’ve had lots of debate recently about whether there could be…
Will an early poll follow on from the Labour surge? Although the chances of a 2009 election here in the UK may still be slim, by contrast the odds on one across the Irish sea have considerably shortened of late. Paddy Power had quoted 2009 at a meagre 11/10, but this has been slashed to just 1/2 in recent weeks. With Harper surviving the budget vote in Canada and Karamanlis still clinging on in Greece, Ireland is near the top…