How to improve your odds by combining bets Over the past few days Richard Nabavi has been alerting us to what seems to be a great betting opportunity by combining two bets – the 4/7 that William Hill Politics is offering on the Tories NOT getting 375 seats or more and the same odds that Ladbrokes are offering on the Tories getting an overall majority. This might sound a bit complicated so let’s go through what I’ve done this morning….
Observer Is Boris going to be a thorn in Dave’s side in the years ahead? What might be good economics is not necessarily always good politics, as the Conservative leadership are discovering over the issue of whether or not to implement Labour’s planned 2011 income tax rise of 45p for the top rate. Lord Tebbit, who prefers spending cuts to tax rises, may be a repeat offender on speaking out against party policy in recent years, but then he does…
CON 41(-3) LD 17(nc) LAB 30(+2) But is it because of a weightings change? The latest ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and reports a sharp change from the last survey from the firm nearly three weeks ago but brings ComRes into broad alignment with the other pollsters. So all the five polling organisations that cover UK political opinion have the Tories on 41 or 42% and Labour on between 30-32%. The only divergence comes with…
What are we predicting will happen in Wales? I’m back in the Land of My Fathers this weekend to watch the Wales v Ireland Six Nations decider, and to see my folks for Sunday Lunch on Mothers’ Day. As timing would have it, last week I made a vague promise to take a look at what might happen in Wales at the next General Election. Being London-based, I’m sure there is much news from the ground of which I’m simply…
Has he gone too far with his comments about Dave? We are getting to stage when almost every comment by a senior Labour MP is being looked at in the context of what might happen in the party after a general election defeat. And the latest “on stage”, as it were, is the Dagenham MP who built up his position in the party two years ago with good bid for the Deputy Leadership when he finished third, John Cruddas. For…
..and only 18% want to stick with Labour The Lib Dems were delighted on Tuesday when the latest Guardian ICM poll had them at 20% – well above the shares from other pollsters including, on that very day, just 14% with Ipsos-MORI. But I wonder how many in the party, particularly those at the top who occasionally give the impression that they are politics primarily because they hate the Tories, are going to view responses from those same LD supporters…
ConservativeHome Could Crosby spell trouble for the Tories on June 4th? A great scoop overnight for ConHome’s Jonathan Isaby suggests that all might not be plain sailing for the Tories in the Euro Election on June 4th – the final major test at the ballots before the general election. For Lynton Crosby, the Oz campaign Guru who managed Boris successful bid for the London Mayoralty last year, has now been engaged by Libertas – the Irish-funded political party that is…
Voting in the PB March 2009 Prediction closed at 6pm and above are the charts showing the number of seats site users believe each of the parties will get at the election. In retrospect I think that we tried to do too much and perhaps ought to have just left it with the three polls featured above. For it was noticeable how voting dropped off as you went down the page. The first survey on election party leaders attracted nearly…