Would a Nobel Prize boost Labour’s prospects?

Would a Nobel Prize boost Labour’s prospects?

How would Dave deal with the Economics Nobel Laureate? There’s a story running in Italy today and quoted by the Evening Standard, that the Vatican’s favourite economist, Ettori Gotti Tedeschi. is calling for this year’s Nobel Prize for Economics to be given to Gordon Brown. According to Paul Waugh in the Standard: “Tedeschi -a fervent Catholic with five children, professor of economics at the Catholic University of Milan and president in Italy of Banco Santander – has told La Repubblica…

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Can Cameron keep C&N blue?

Can Cameron keep C&N blue?

Is the by election seat the best guide to the election? Simply to get a majority, based on the new constituencies boundaries it’s estimated that the Tories need to gain 114 seats. Check out the list on UKPollingReport here. In strict numerical order these include 29 seats where the incumbent or notional incumbent is not Labour and where conventional swing analysis might not apply on quite the same scale. They include Tory targets in Scotland, including some held by the…

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Will this 30 year old ad have the same potency?

Will this 30 year old ad have the same potency?

Is reminding voters of Thatcher really a good idea? The poster above from Maggie Thatcher’s successful campaign in 1979 is, according to the Spectator Coffee House, being re-worked to form the central party theme of the coming general election. The concept seems dead simple and how smart, you can see them thinking, to link it to the iconic campaign of thirty years ago. This was the last time, it should be said, that the Tories came back to power after…

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Should David Laws take a polling history lesson?

Should David Laws take a polling history lesson?

Click here to watch Why’s the LD schools spokesman getting it so wrong? You’ll have to indulge me if you think I’ve banged on about this too much – but I have a real “bee in my bonnet” about the phoney invalid polling comparisons that journos, pundits and politicians are rushing to make when they compare the polling position at the moment with what went on in 1996/97. And the person who has got under my skin this afternoon is…

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The PB General Election Prediction Survey

The PB General Election Prediction Survey

What’s the collective view of PB? Please “vote” in each section and submit separately. This will close at 1800 GMT tomorrow (Thursday). Although, of course, this a voodoo poll these can be quite fun and should provide an indication of what the PB community, at least, thinks is going to happen. Who’ll still be there as party leaders on election day? Cameron:Brown:Clegg Cameron:Brown Cameron:Clegg Brown:Clegg Only Cameron Only Brown Only Clegg None of them    What do you think the…

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The Tories maintain their ICM lead

The Tories maintain their ICM lead

CON 42(nc) LAB 30(nc) LD 20(+2) Will this ease the Tory jitters? After a couple of quite disappointing polls for the Tories there’s the monthly Guardian survey by ICM and the only change is a two point jump in the Lib Dem share. This latest survey means that every single poll during 2009 has had the Tories in 40s and the fact that ICM, regarded by many in the Labour party as the “gold standard”, is not showing any movement…

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Is the Tory vote becoming less committed?

Is the Tory vote becoming less committed?

Ipsos-MORI Is it because Cameron has been out of the news? When the MORI poll came out this morning my initial reaction was that what had driven the decline in the Tory share and increase in the Labour one was a big increase in the number of the latter’s supporters saying they were “100% certain to vote”. We have now just got the detailed data and I was wrong. The level of overall Tory support in the poll was not…

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Labour close the gap with Ipsos-MORI

Labour close the gap with Ipsos-MORI

CONSERVATIVES 42% (-6) LABOUR 32% (+4) LIB DEMS 14% (-3) How close are we to a hung parliament? After the YouGov poll at the weekend reported a Conservative lead of just ten points the Ipsos-MORI Political Monitor for March, just out, has numbers in almost exactly the same region. This comes after a period when the spotlight has been off the Tory leader, David Cameron, following his bereavement leave. It should be said that MORI only include in their headline…

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