Mail Online Or will it just keep the story going? The Brown apology story moves on a step this morning with comments by the PM in a Guardian interview in which he admits that that he could have taken tougher action to curb the financial markets during he period as Chancellor. I think the Mail story above has got the sense right – yes there are words of apology there but it’s arguable whether he’s gone far enough. Whatever it’s…
Betting odds link David Herdson’s slant on the Tory leadership (This is a comment that David posted a few days ago which I thought was worthy of greater prominence – MS) The next Tory leader is one market I wouldn’t be going near at the moment. For one thing, Tory leaders are rarely the obvious candidates. For another, goodness knows when the next election will be. If Cameron loses the next general election, he may stand down straight away in…
ICM Is the idea that “governments always recover” a myth? We are hearing it all the time at the moment from journalists, politicos and pundits who should at least have the basic ability to check some simple facts before publishing wild statements – the idea that governments “always” recover in the polls as we get close to the general election. One of the problems, as discussed on the previous thread, is that many recall the unreformed polls of the 1990s…
When can you make valid historical poll comparisons? Almost everyday, it seems, someone on a thread or a journalist will seek to make polling comparisons with the 1990s and each time it happens myself and others will try to explain which this is not as easy as it appears. For there has been such a revolution in the UK polling industry since the aftermath of the 1992 general election that you have to be very careful when you point to…
Is this why the LD priority should be attacking Brown? Well done to the Sunday Times for making the detail from today’s YouGov poll available immediately. I wish all newspapers would do the same instead of us, in most cases, having to wait two or three days. You can download the spreadsheet from the link here. In view of the discussion on Lib Dem strategy I’ve clipped the above numbers showing the party splits on the Cameron and Brown approval…
News of the World Or is this now a lose-lose situation for the PM? Writing in the News of the World, former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey has called for Brown to say “sorry” – is there now going to become a growing clamour for the Prime Minister to say the s-word? He says: “…it would be a refreshing, and much overdue, acknowledgement of some responsibility for the state we are in…” and points to the example of Obama as…
Updated CON 41(nc) LAB 31(nc) LD 17(+2) Is this too close to hung parliament territory? The March YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now out and the numbers might cause a touch of concern in Team Cameron and offer a little bit of hope at Brown Central. For taking these numbers and assuming a uniform national swing and we are not far from the outcome being a hung parliament. But I must totally disagree with this statement in the…
Will the media even contemplate a success? Reading through the coverage a couple of weeks ago, and there was still some talk that a successful G20 summit in London – with President Obama appearing next to the Prime Minister on our shores – might provide the filip necessary for Labour to contemplate a Summer 2009 election. That seems a remote, if not faintly absurd, notion now. The Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman lashed out at the lobby for setting unrealistic expectations…