Will he Stay or Will he Go?

Will he Stay or Will he Go?

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What do we make of the differing reports? Two completely different takes on Gordon Brown’s future are reported in the Sunday papers.  The Mail claims that Labour sources say that “Gordon Brown may agree to step down as Prime Minister before the next General Election”, while in an interview with the News of the World, Brown himself insists that “it is because of my purpose in politics that I’m determined to lead Labour into the next election”. Meanwhile, in yesterday’s…

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Labour still on 22pc with ComRes

Labour still on 22pc with ComRes

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CON 39(+1) LAB 22(nc) LD 18 (-2) But why’s there so much variation in the Labour numbers? All but one of the Westminster polls since the June 4th elections have shown the Tories either on 39% or 40%. Where there’s been a big variation has been with the Labour shares. While all of them now have the party in the 20s and in second place the percentages range from 22% to 27% which is outside the margin of error. The…

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Beckett now becomes an even firm favourite

Beckett now becomes an even firm favourite

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Betfair Politics Young now beating Bercow for the third favourite slot The chart showing price movements on the Betfair betting exchange tells the story of the past 24 hours as opinion amongst punters hardens for Beckett with Young now seen as the only person who can beat her. As I write at 4.15pm it’s Beckett 2.35/1, Young 3.4/1 with Bercow now out to 4.1/1. The view seems to be that the original Labour idea of having a left-wing Tory speaker…

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The Speakership: tracking the horse race

The Speakership: tracking the horse race

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Might the final fence cause problems? This has to go down as one of the best contests, and best betting opportunities, we’ve had in British politics for a while. There are markets now on the number of rounds of voting that will be required, as well as for which candidate might be victorious. Betting links to support PB.com, as always, at the bottom of this article. I was trying to plot out the new election system this week, and the…

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How’s the police probe going to affect the polls?

How’s the police probe going to affect the polls?

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Where’s this all going to end? The crisis that has dominated UK politics for nearly two months has edged up a notch with the news that four MPs and a peer, all Labour, will face a full criminal investigation. Those are involved are named in the SkyNews report above and this development is not going to make life comfortable for several others who have had questions raised over their activities. What this does is keep the story on the front…

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The Speaker race: the prices get tighter

The Speaker race: the prices get tighter

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Prices as at 6.30 pm. Click for latest updates Betfair’s last price matched has Beckett as favourite With just three days to go before MPs elect their new speaker there’s been a lot of activity on the betting markets with Bercow, Beckett and Young pulling away from the field. On Betfair the “last prices matched” (at 3.10pm) were Beckett 3.55 (5/2), Young 4.3 (3.3/1), Bercow 5 (4/1), Widdecombe 9.8 (8.8/1). The last price matched is often a better indicator than…

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Who’ll get the blame for the expenses blackout?

Who’ll get the blame for the expenses blackout?

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Has redaction just made it a whole lot worse? If anybody thought that the official publication of MPs expense claim forms was going to put an end to the crisis then this morning’s front pages suggest they were wrong. For almost every paper is leading with the same broad story “expenses blackout” – because of the way that most of the documentation is almost totally useless because so much of the key detail been blacked out. All this has done…

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Is the battle now down to Young vs Beckett?

Is the battle now down to Young vs Beckett?

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Where’s the best value in the Speaker betting? With less than four days to go before the summer’s big political betting event is resolved – the battle for the Speakership of the house of commons – I’m becoming increasingly convinced that this is now a contest between Sir George Young and Margaret Beckett. I had a good session this afternoon with a Labour MP who has been taking a close interest in the contest and his observations closely coincided what…

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