But what if he’s right?

But what if he’s right?

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Could he have the winning formula after all? The largely settled view of commentators and punters alike is that Labour will lose the next general election. No pundit has predicted that Labour (still less Brown) will be running government after polling day for some time, and the betting markets make the Conservatives heavily odds-on to win an outright majority, never mind most seats. Labour’s implied percentage chances of keeping a majority are stuck in single figures. However, a slim chance…

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Can he make it to the parliamentary recess?

Can he make it to the parliamentary recess?

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Will the “dignified exit” then come in September? Ever since his survival after the June 4th elections disaster there’s been talk that a deal was done with Mandelson during those critical few days for Brown to be allowed to stay so he could have a “dignified exit” at a less frenetic time. This, I believe, is the sub-text of much of what is going on at the moment with Simon Carr putting it clearly in the Indy this morning. “And…

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Could Bercow be a future PM?

Could Bercow be a future PM?

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What do we think of Paul Linford’s speculation? Labour inclined blogger, Paul Linford has an interesting post under the heading “Could it be Prime Minister Bercow one day?”. His article looks at some of the historical precedent and then concludes: “..Bercow has said he will do nine years in the Chair, effectively two full Parliaments plus the toe-end of this one. That will make him 55 when he stands down – younger than Gordon Brown was when he became Prime…

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Who’s winning the Dave-Gord numbers war?

Who’s winning the Dave-Gord numbers war?

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BBC Online Will voters get bored by the details? Yet again today’s PMQ was dominated by the Tory leader trying to get the PM to admit that his answers a week ago and other public statements on cuts were not accurate. He was, in fact, being called a liar. The Tory strategy seems to be two-fold – to portray Brown as untrustworthy through his use of “dodgy” numbers and to get over that Labour is having to make cuts as…

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Will my mate Pat ask a planted question?

Will my mate Pat ask a planted question?

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Or will be continue his customary independence? Pictured above is Pat Hall, MP for Bedford since 1997, my general election opponent in 1992 and my colleague for adjoining divisions on Bedfordshire county council from 1989-1996. Today at the first post-Michael Martin PMQs he’s down to ask the first question and I wonder whether he’ll succumb to the whips and ask a planted one? Although we are of different parties Pat is generally a good guy and I was delighted when…

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How tricky is the Iraq inquiry for Brown/Blair?

How tricky is the Iraq inquiry for Brown/Blair?

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Could a pre-election public grilling hurt Labour? The main lead in the Guardian this morning is the news that both Blair and Brown are likely to face public questioning about their Iraq war role by the Chilcot inquiry. Last week Brown announced that this would be in secret but after a wave a protests that has been changed. As the paper puts it “..the move to open up his hearings, which came on the eve of a Commons debate tomorrow…

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Can the tide be turned?

Can the tide be turned?

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This is an interesting chart just issued by MORI showing it’s polling trends since over the past six years. The main thing to note is that the firm’s methodology changed in June 2008 and this might have been the basis of a small part of the Labour decline. Whatever it doesn’t look good this far out from a general election. For those who want more there is a range of polling trend charts here. Mike Smithson

Labour down 4 points with Ipsos-MORI

Labour down 4 points with Ipsos-MORI

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CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc) “Others” continue to have big impact on the shares A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows Labour sharply down on the last survey from the firm taken the weekend before. The firm itself is quoting changes on a poll before the Euro elections when Labour dropped to 18%. This is a steep drop in just a week but perhaps reflects how the media was covering Labour in the period after the EU…

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