Are electorates follically prejudiced? There are all sorts of patterns that exist in politics. Some are entirely coincidental, such as every US president elected in a year ending in zero dying in office from 1840 to 1960 (and Reagan – elected in 1980 – was shot but survived); others have a relatively clear mathematical and logical link, such as the relationship between the vote share of a party and the seats it’s likely to win. Then there are others that…
What line might Cameron take today? It could be a tricky PMQs today for Gordon Brown – I’d expect him to take heavy fire over the refusal to completely scrap the ID cards programme, and wouldn’t be surprised if Ed Ball’s recent spat with Fraser Nelson of the Spectator didn’t earn a mention (here is the story, see also a definition of the Streisand Effect). After Greg Hands MP complained that the PM and Schools Secretary not only failed to…
Does this suggest Johnson is still angling for the top job? There is still a large school of thought that thinks Brown will be allowed to step aside with dignity before the next election, and that such a promise was given to stop him being ousted in an ugly coup a month ago. Alan Johnson, who reputedly had a leadership campaign ready to launch, was suddenly promoted to Home Secretary, and the general feeling of those who doubt Brown will…
Could Craig cash in on the anti-pol mood? The news that Craig Murray is to stand in the Norwich North by election could really shake up the race and makes the betting quite interesting. Murray came to public attention in 2003 when he was sacked as Britain’s ambassador to Uzbekistan for taking a stance against torture. He now says that he’s to run in the July 23rd by election on an anti-sleaze ticket which might just capture the public mood….
Is he anything like as smart as his billing? Yesterday’s big statement, Brown’s latest re-launch, is the first such major government move since Lord Mandelson was promoted to his unique new position in charge of just about everything. So how come it got such a terrible press this morning. How come that the work of the “great communicator” failed to add the “Mandelson magic” to the programme? Where was the skilled rhetoric, the thread that would bind it together, or…
Who’ll suffer most – Dave, Gord or Nick? Another poll and another big share for “other parties” which have seen their Westminster polling numbers stay at very high levels even though it’s nearly a month since the June 4th Euro Elections. All the pundits, including me, were suggesting a rapid decline as the EU election affect wears off and all the focus is on the battle ahead between Labour and the Tories with the LDs having an interest in a…
CON 36 (-3) LAB 25 (+3) LD 19 (+1) But the Tories are most trusted when it comes to cuts There’s a new poll tonight from ComRes for tomorrow’s Indy. The figures are above and although the changes are all within the margin of error they should provide a touch of encouragement for Labour supporters. For they have the party closer than in any poll since Labour’s June 4th elections disaster and if this indeed was the election outcome out…
This afternoon we had the third “draft Queen’s speech – the new addition to the commons scene – the trailing of the Queen’s speech setting out the planned legislative programme. This was first seen two years ago and provides a peg for PMs present and future to set out a broad vision as well as some detailed proposals. Given the proximity of the general election today might have been a key occasion – a chance to float ideas that could…