Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

ICM Guardian polls Can Labour stay above 30% for the next year? Yesterday I had lunch in the “Westminster village” and it still comes as a surprise to hear apparently sophisticated political pundits not being fully aware that polling has changed dramatically since Tony Blair coming to power in 1997. Comparisons from that era with today are simply not valid – unless the pollster is ICM which is the only one still operating from then that has a consistent methodology….

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Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Ipsos-MORI What will it do to the campaign if the EU is not an issue? We are just four weeks and two days from the final national election test ahead of the general election – and hardly anybody seems to have noticed. The one betting market – on whether or not Labour’s share will drop below 20% – says it all. That’s all that the media, pundits and punters seem to be interested in. For the political narrative is almost…

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Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

PoliticsHome100 But is he good value at 4/1? Two developments during the day on the Labour leadership – the PH100 panel of MPs, senior political journalists, key party strategists and think tank leaders – came out overwhelmingly to say that Alan Johnson would pose the biggest treat to the Tories. A total of 70% of those who took part backed the health secretary. At the same time on the betting markets Johnson moved into the favourite slot for the first…

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Could this man bring down Brown?

Could this man bring down Brown?

What if Mandy decides that the PM is bad for Labour? An interesting piece by Rachel Sylvester in the Times on the subject everybody seems to want to talk about – how Brown could be forced out. She writes: “.. what is certain is that the Blairites are not going to go down without a fight. The one to watch is Peter Mandelson. By bringing his former enemy back into the Cabinet last year Mr Brown locked in the modernisers…

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Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Could his approach curtail Labour’s losses? Over the long holiday weekend there’s been a lot of comment about the health secretary Alan Johnson and whether under his leadership the coming general election would not be as bad for Labour as some are suggesting. What the Johnson backers are not explaining is the “how” – the reason why, of all the current crop of leading ministers he is the only one with a well thought out and effective means of dealing…

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What are the lessons from 1979?

What are the lessons from 1979?

Can we expect the same Lib Dem squeeze? Having been watching the BBC Parliament re-run of the 1979 general election results programme on and off since 9am I’ve been trying to think of the lessons that might help us to predict the next general election – almost certainly in 2010. The common themes are very marked. A possibility of the return of the Tory government; a Labour party that had some massive challenges on the economy to face and a…

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The next London Mayor

The next London Mayor

Best political betting prices What if Boris doesn’t stand? Without wanting to give any credence to the stories of a Boris v Dave rivalry, with Number 10 as the ultimate prize, this past week was not the first time that there have been rumblings that Boris Johnson might not want to spend 8 years running City Hall. You can never tell, especially with his public persona, whether the faux-modesty and claims of no higher ambition are to be taken seriously….

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Roll up, roll up for the 1979 show

Roll up, roll up for the 1979 show

Will you stay with it for the WHOLE 15 hours? The BBC Parliament Channel has developed a splendid tradition of re-showing a full general election results programme from the past on Bank Holiday Mondays. You get it as though it was live as it happens and it lasts a very long time. For political anoraks these re-showings are quite an occasion and can sometimes be exciting even though, of course, we know the outcome. You also get insights which very…

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