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The return of the unstable democracies

6/9/2009 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Greece, and probably Canada, set for autumn elections Democracy in all its forms is a curious beast, and while some democracies are politically stable, the already busy political autumn of 2009 looks set to be joined by elections in two of its less stable members, as international politics got underway in earnest this week, following last Sunday’s elections in Japan and three German Lander. Greece will hold a general election on Sunday 4th October, barely two years into the 4-year…

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Ladbrokes tighten the Farage price again

6/9/2009 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The UKIP man’s price moves in to 10/3 The big political betting news this weekend continues to be the general election fight in Buckingham between John Bercow and Nigel Farage. When ex-UKIP leader announced on Thursday morning that we would be standing against the speaker Ladbrokes opened the betting with a price of 6/1 that he’d do it. That didn’t last long and tightened to 4/1. Now Ladbrokes have had to bring in the price further because so much money…

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Could a voting reform referendum save Brown?

6/9/2009 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Is this the way to get Lib Dems to support Labour? There are poll findings out this morning from the Electoral Reform Society which might just offer a glimmer of hope to Brown Central in its bid for Labour not to be annihilated in the coming general election. For the response to questions bolted onto last week’s Sun YouGov poll seem to suggest that a promise of a referendum on voting reform might influence some voters – particularly those planning…

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Lib Dem set-back in new Scottish YouGov poll

5/9/2009 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

You has the SNP continuing to progress One thing that the release by the SNP government of the Lockerbie bomber has sparked off is a spate of Scottish polling and most of it has been carried out by YouGov. The latest numbers, which I am told are a PB exclusive, focus not on views of the decision to release the mass murderer but the latest on voting intentions for the next Scottish parliament elections in 2011. The poll was commissioned…

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How valid are ConHome’s polls?

5/9/2009 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Shouldn’t they be joining the British Polling Council? It’s become almost a regular occurrence. ConservativeHome (or ContinuityIDS as we used to call it) carries out a survey and up pops Tim Montgomerie to talk as though he is the official voice of the party’s grass-roots. But how much attention should we give to his polling? Are samples, for instance, weighted in line with the known demographics of the audience he is testing? What weightings are used? What is the precise…

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Is the problem now Brown’s handling – not the release itself?

5/9/2009 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Telegraph Can we expect more contradictions to come out? The war of words over the release of the Lockerbie bomber takes moves forward another step this morning with an interview in the Daily Telegraph which appears to contradict what the Prime Minister was saying earlier in the week. Then Brown was adamant that “There was no conspiracy, no cover-up, no double dealing, no deal on oil, no attempt to instruct Scottish ministers, no private assurances.” That’s all very hard to…

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The Irish referendum – it’s getting tighter

4/9/2009 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Irish Times A new poll in the Irish Times today suggests that the outcome of the October 2nd referendum on whether Ireland should ratify Lisbon is getting tighter. The figures are with changes on the last poll three months ago: YES 46% (-8): NO 29% (+1): DON’T KNOW 25% At this stage before the 2008 referendum an Irish Times poll had YES 35%: NO 18%: DON’T KNOW 47%. The actual result, as I’m sure we are all aware, was a…

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So could there be an October coup?

4/9/2009 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Guardian What do we think of Kettle’s Friday column? If you thought that all the issues over the Labour leadership are now history and that Brown will lead the party into the next election then check out Martin Kettle in the Guardian. He writes:“….An active network of MPs and peers now exists, involving some names you might expect, but also others â€“ including big ones â€“ whose participation would surprise you. This group, like probably the majority of Labour MPs,…

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