Why my money is on Farage in Buckingham

Why my money is on Farage in Buckingham

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Will Bercow be portrayed as “Labour’s candidate”? Just reflecting further overnight about the announcement that UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, will fight John Bercow, in Buckingham I’ve come to the view that the 4/1 that’s available is one of the best general elections bets about. Firstly try to envisage how the campaign will work in this true-blue seat at the election. Because there will be no official Conservative candidate the Farage campaign will be able to present their man as the…

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Joyce: Minor irritant or major problem?

Joyce: Minor irritant or major problem?

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Channel 4 News What’ll be the impact of the resignation? It’s quite hard to assess the impact of tonight’s resignation of defence minister Eric Joyce. Will this get buried in all the other political news that’s about or could it damage Mr. Brown who has become so associated with the Afghan strategy. The challenge for Number 10 is that his reasons go to the heart of how the PM is presenting his case. This is from Joyce’s letter: “…As you…

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Will the Tory EPP withdrawal derail Lisbon?

Will the Tory EPP withdrawal derail Lisbon?

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What are the mechanics of the next nine months? Ireland’s second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will take place on 2 October. Assuming it’s passed what happens next could have consequences for the UK election. Three other countries have yet to ratify. In Germany there’s a legal challenge to the Constitutional Court and secondly – and as a result of the ruling from that challenge – the need to amend some domestic legislation. That is currently scheduled to be done…

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It’s the English towns – stupid!

It’s the English towns – stupid!

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A re-look at Blair Freebairn’s battleground map It was just two years ago that geographer, Blair Freebairn, did a PB guest slot in which he produced the above map to show where the general election battle-ground will be. This has had a great influence on my thinking and I thought it well worth repeating. Blair noted: “Take a good look at the map. Notice anything? That these marginal seats will decide the next election is not news. But look at…

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Labour pull back back 2 points with YouGov

Labour pull back back 2 points with YouGov

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CON 42 (nc) LAB 28 (+2) LD 17 (-1) Another survey within the margin of error When we has the last YouGov survey in Monday’s Telegraph the main news was that Labour had dropped a couple of points. Well tonight’s poll for the Sun has Brown’s party back at 28% but the movement is well within the margin of error so you cannot conclude very much. Amongst other figures the paper reports: “Voters also say Mr Cameron would make a…

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So what about England?

So what about England?

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Is this where the battle is really going to take place? With all the recent focus on Scotland perhaps it’s worth reminding ourselves that the vast majority of the key battles that will determine whether Cameron’s Tories have a working majority are in England. Last time all but four Tory seats were in England. That total might increase next time if current poll trends remain but still it will be England that dominates. Of the 650 seats to be contested…

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The debate: Now the betting begins

The debate: Now the betting begins

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The 5/6 on Cameron being “the winner” looks good Quick off the mark Irish bookmakers PaddyPower has just opened a market on who in an independent poll will be judged the “winner” of the first TV debate of the general election campaign. I assume that all bets are void if the debate does not take place and you’ll get your stake back. I can see potential problems in settling the market if, for instance, separate pollsters rate it differently. This…

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