CON 42 (nc) LAB 28 (+2) LD 17 (-1)

Another survey within the margin of error

When we has the last YouGov survey in Monday’s Telegraph the main news was that Labour had dropped a couple of points. Well tonight’s poll for the Sun has Brown’s party back at 28% but the movement is well within the margin of error so you cannot conclude very much.

Amongst other figures the paper reports: “Voters also say Mr Cameron would make a better Prime Minister than Gordon Brown by a factor of two to one. Our survey shows 38 percent of voters believe Mr Cameron would make the best PM – to just 19 percent for Mr Brown..Six out of ten voters say Mr Brown is doing “fairly” or “very” badly in Number 10 Downing Street..Only 16 percent are prepared to say he is doing a good job.

On the Lockerbie bombers the report goes on: “Our poll reveals 51 percent of people think Mr Brown should have actively opposed the Scottish decision to release the Lockerbie bomber..More than one third believe his release will do nothing to boost trade relations with Libya..And a huge 57 percent say it would still NOT be worth letting him out of jail early even if it cemented trade deals”

So not a lot of change from the online pollster which does not factor certainty to vote into its headline numbers. All the other firms do and it’s interesting that they are tending to have Labour on lower levels.

As I keep saying – let’s wait until after the conference season has worked its way out of the system before coming to firm conclusions.

Whatever the Tories are again comfortably above the 40% threshold and it’s hard to conclude anything other than Mr. Brown will start drawing his PM’s pension sometime in the next nine months.

Mike Smithson