Is he now facing up to to reality of what lies ahead? This evening I attended (that’s me in the blue shirt in the second row) a Cameron Direct town hall meeting in Bedford when the Tory leader fielded questions that hadn’t been submitted in advance from an audience which I guessed was less than 50% Conservative. This is all part of the by-election campaign that’s going on for the town’s elected mayor where his party is holding an open…
CON 45 LAB 25 LD 18 Introducing an exclusive new polling service from Ipsos-MORI In a post last week I argued that what we needed was some England-specific polling because this is where the big battles will take place at the general election. England has 533 of the 650 seats that will be at stake and proportionately more marginals than in the others parts of the UK. Also in England there is not the SNP/PC dimension which adds to the…
BBC News
Will this still stand when the results are known? With YouGov yesterday showing a Labour share of 28% while ComRes for the Indy this morning puts it at 24% I thought it might be useful to remind ourselves of the “PB Golden Rule of Polling”. This is based on the the polling record at every single major election since the 1980s where the survey with Labour in the least favourable position has been the best indicator of voting intention. There…
CON 40%(-1) LAB 24%(nc) LD 21%(+3) The Tory vote seems to be the most solid After the spate of YouGov online surveys it’s good to have a poll from a firm that operates in a totally different manner. ComRes, is a phone pollster with past vote weighting but unlike YouGov does filter its data by certainty to vote. In the past I have had issues with ComRes but adjustments were made to their methodology in June and I’m happy with…
UKPollingReport Remember the days when a hung parliament seemed a certainty? With all the talk about Brown being ousted or stepping down I’ve just been asked by a journalist how I thought Labour would do in the polls if there was a different leader. My starting point was the table above – the polls from the five months before Brown became leader and Prime Minister on June 27 2007. Just looking at the actual numbers came as something as a…
Guardian Can Jackie Ashley breathe fire into Labour? Mike Smithson
CON 40 (-2) LAB 27 (-1) LD 18 (+1) Tories down to 40% with YouGov The online pollster, YouGov, which has taken such a dominant position in UK polling, has another survey out this morning which might cause some concern at Cameron Central. For although the party is still in the 40s it is only just there and the lead over Labour is down to its lowest since June. We have not got details of the fieldwork period or a…