20 years after the fall of CeauÅŸescu…

20 years after the fall of CeauÅŸescu…

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Wikimedia Commons …is President Băsescu about to be toppled? Twenty years ago next month saw the bloodiest of the Eastern Europe revolutions of 1989, with the overthrow and execution of Romania’s leader Nicolae CeauÅŸescu and his wife Elena, and the takeover of power by the National Salvation Front, many of whose members had been communist officials. Today’s Romania is a very different place from its early 1990s counterpart, with the fledging democracy dominated by the NSF having settled down into…

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Are the Tories really most at risk from UKIP?

Are the Tories really most at risk from UKIP?

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How less than one in five are ex-Tory voters This is the first part of some analysis I’ve been doing on the rise of “others” – UKIP, the BNP and the Greens – and the impact that they might have at the next general election. A big question to start with is where is UKIP support coming from? What can we find out from the polling data? The following numbers are based on the aggregation of all the relevant data…

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Could Oborne’s programme help the Lib Dems in Watford?

Could Oborne’s programme help the Lib Dems in Watford?

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Channel 4 What’ll it do to the top seat betting market? Word reaches me that Channel 4’s Dispatches programme tomorrow night might be helpful to the the Lib Dems in Watford – the constituency which, according to Ladbrokes, has seen the heaviest general election betting. I have not got any details whatsoever but we know that Oborne never gets involved with stuff that is run of the mill. Watford is currently Labour-held but with both the Tories and Lib Dems…

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Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

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Is this a polite way of saying “I’m not voting”? Another poll this morning, the ComRes one for the Indy on Sunday, has a huge 19 percent share for “others” including 6 percent for the Greens. This is out of line with other firms but follows a 5 percent share in the ComRes poll at the end of October and, as we might recall, what proved to be a wildly optimistic 15 percent in the firm’s final survey ahead of…

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And this was after Brown’s “good week”!

And this was after Brown’s “good week”!

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CON 39%(40) LAB 25%(27) LD 17%(18) OTHERS 19% (15) [LAB/CON 64.1% (67.5)] Another week goes by and two more polls come out which will add to the discomfort at Number 10. The first from Comres is above has the Tories slipping a point to below 40, Labour slipping two points to 25 with “others” seeing a massive boost to 19% – which is the biggest proportion in any survey since the EU election effect had worked its way out of…

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“Tories 14 points ahead in two polls”

“Tories 14 points ahead in two polls”

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Tory pressman Henry Macrory has just Twittered to say “Two polls tonight will give Conservatives a 14pt lead”. I assume that these are YouGov and ComRes. So it’s no change with the lead from YouGov but a one point increase from ComRes. Mike Smithson

Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

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A Guest slot by Jack W (PBers in their quiet, contemplative moments will no doubt worry how a PB Titan spends his reflective moments after having polished his betting halo, plotting the next Jacobite Rising and single handedly erasing the balance of payments deficit by stint of fine pie exports alone. You need concern yourself no more. For having been prevailed upon to lift the literary status of PB to Nobel literary standards it is clear that my every spare…

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Is Michael Thrasher right about a hung parliament?

Is Michael Thrasher right about a hung parliament?

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Why won’t the pre-1997 polls comparison die? Michael Thrasher gave an interview for Sky News yesterday afternoon in which he built upon the article written for their website, inferring that the election is heading towards a hung parliament. In it, he made various claims and inferences that really shouldn’t be allowed to stand and which I find quite astonishing from such a senior expert in the subject. To summarise: He claimed that the Tories are struggling to break through 40%. In fact,…

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