And this was after Brown’s “good week”!

And this was after Brown’s “good week”!

CON 39%(40)
LAB 25%(27)
LD 17%(18)
OTHERS 19% (15)
[LAB/CON 64.1% (67.5)]

Another week goes by and two more polls come out which will add to the discomfort at Number 10.

The first from Comres is above has the Tories slipping a point to below 40, Labour slipping two points to 25 with “others” seeing a massive boost to 19% – which is the biggest proportion in any survey since the EU election effect had worked its way out of the system. The total is even larger than in PB’s Angus Reid poll eight days ago.

One of the challenges of the rise of others is that it complicates the process of trying to work out what is happening in the battle that will decide the election – CON vs LAB. So tonight I’m experimenting with a new figure in our polling presentation – expressing the Labour share as a proportion of the Conservative one. Here we see a sharp decline unlike in YouGov where the figures have hardly moved.

CON 41%(41)
LAB 27%(27)
LD 18%(17)
OTHERS 14% (15)
[LAB/CON 68.6% (68.6)]

The most interesting feature of these two polls is that they suggest that any sympathy that Mr. Brown might have attracted following the spat with the Sun does not seem to have translated itself into the voting intention numbers. Labour continues to be in dire trouble and we are only about 21 weeks away from the start of a formal campaign if May 6th is indeed going to be the date.

There should be two new polls out on Monday or Tuesday which could pick up any beneficial effects from Labour’ Glasgow NE by election victories.

Mike Smithson

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