Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

Are the Greens’ polling numbers the most suspect?

Is this a polite way of saying “I’m not voting”?

Another poll this morning, the ComRes one for the Indy on Sunday, has a huge 19 percent share for “others” including 6 percent for the Greens.

This is out of line with other firms but follows a 5 percent share in the ComRes poll at the end of October and, as we might recall, what proved to be a wildly optimistic 15 percent in the firm’s final survey ahead of the EU parliament elections in June. Then ComRes had them at 15 percent – they actually got 8.6 percent.

Interestingly all the pollsters on that occasion over-stated the Greens though not by the same margin.

Looking over polling which can be tested against real results there does appear to be something of a pattern – more Green supporters seem ready to tell pollsters that they will vote for the party than actually do so.

So in the summer the only poll, admittedly with a very small sample, ahead of the Norwich North by election had them on 14 percent and there was even talk of them even winning the seat. They ended up in fifth place with 9.7 per cent.

Just going back a bit to 2007 one poll ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections had them on 9 percent for the regional vote – when the ballots were counted they finished up with 4 percent.

One feature I’ve noticed in the ComRes detailed data is that generally those saying Green are less likely to have voted in the 2005 general election than those of other parties. That’s what happened again in today’s survey.

So I just wonder if saying “Green” a polite way of replying “I probably won’t be voting“?.

Maybe my 4/1 bet with Victor Chandler that the Greens will get a Westminster seat is not such good value after all. The current price is 13/8.

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.