CON 43% (37) LAB 26% (31) LD 20% (17) OTHERS 11% (16) So all the speculation was wrong News is just coming in of the much talked about MORI poll where the fieldwork took place last weekend. The assumption had been that because ICM, which had polled at the same time, had reported a rising Labour share into the 30s then MORI would do the same. Well it hasn’t and the figures are above. They come as much as a…
CON 40%(40) LAB 28 (31) LD 18%(16) OTHERS 14% (13) Is this just getting back to normal? Whichever paper has invested good money in the unpublished MORI poll, completed last weekend, is going to find that it will look even more outdated following news of this latest YouGov survey for the People. That’s one of the risks of holding onto surveys – things can happen. So here is a poll that will ease Tory jitters and provide welcome relief for…
Why did we get the EU elections so wrong? At the start of the year we ran our usual 2009 prediction competition when posters were asked to submit their projections for a wide range of political areas during the year. This January post by Double Carpet, Paul Maggs, sets out a summary of the projections. Well how are we going to do? The above shows the average responses from those who took part and clearly we got the party leaders…
One of the great problems with the Angus Reid poll is that its numbers fly in the face of the current media narrative that we are heading for a hung parliament. It must therefore be a rogue many people seem to be saying. Another challenging aspect is its sheer consistency at a time when many of the other pollsters seem to be reporting big swings from survey to survey. So Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have each only…
CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (23) LD 20%(19) OTHERS 15% (18) And others decline a bit too These are the figures just in from our latest survey where the fieldwork started on Wednesday and finished only this morning. Importantly this survey started two days after that for last weekend’s polls by ICM and MORI finished – so it is more up to date. We are, of course, still waiting for the latter to appear. Although Angus Reid has been showing…
UKPollingReport Look what happens to Labour when pollsters don’t adjust The June 4th election for the EU parliament was the last occasion when we could test the output of a range of pollsters against real votes in a national election – and the outcome is featured in the above UKPollingReport table. The numbers to focus on are the Labour and Tory shares. Of the four pollsters that did EU election polls ICM and Populus weighted their sample by what respondents…
PaddyPower Should you be piling on at 13/8? Given recent polls and the widespread belief that government’s always recover as we get closer to the election date then the 30% plus segment in PaddyPower’s Labour percentage vote market seems an absolute snip. The 13/8 is a pretty good price given that all you are betting is that the final vote percentage is above that. Note, and we will be repeating this a lot in the coming weeks and months, this…
ICMResearch Could it even show Labour to be level-pegging? Thanks to the Lib Dem poll watcher, Mark Senior, on a previous thread for highlighting the very high proportion of 2005 Labour supporters in the sample for the latest Guardian ICM poll. From the table it can be seen that one in two of those who said they had voted at the last election told the pollster that they had opted for Labour. Contrast that with the 36.1% GB share that…