The MORI poll has a 17pt lead

The MORI poll has a 17pt lead

CON 43% (37)
LAB 26% (31)
LD 20% (17)
OTHERS 11% (16)

So all the speculation was wrong

News is just coming in of the much talked about MORI poll where the fieldwork took place last weekend. The assumption had been that because ICM, which had polled at the same time, had reported a rising Labour share into the 30s then MORI would do the same.

Well it hasn’t and the figures are above. They come as much as a surprise to me as to anyone.

Ipsos-MORI does not weight its samples by past vote and only includes in its headline figures those who are 100% certain to vote. This can lead to huge variations from poll to poll as we can see tonight.

So much seems to be dependent on the Lib Dem share that polls find. If Clegg’s party is up then Labour is usually down. On top of that in this latest poll we see a big decline in the proportion going to others.

So the Tories move up a walloping six points while Labour drops five. The MORI Tory share is the highest from any pollster since the ICM poll taken at the time of the Tory conference in October.

The big question is what the political impact will be. With Copenhagen ending in a messy compromise and the polls move away from Labour then it certainly undermines any talk of a revival.

Mike Smithson

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