Why did we get the EU elections so wrong?
At the start of the year we ran our usual 2009 prediction competition when posters were asked to submit their projections for a wide range of political areas during the year. This January post by Double Carpet, Paul Maggs, sets out a summary of the projections.
Well how are we going to do? The above shows the average responses from those who took part and clearly we got the party leaders pretty much right. But we were wrong on speaker Martin and his successor.
But our biggest “mistakes” were in the two election relating to the EU. In the June 4th Euro elections actual shares of, CON 27.1: LAB 15.7: LD 13.7: UKIP 16.5 were different from the way PBers had seen it barely five months earlier.
And then there were the projections for the second Irish Lisbon treaty referendum!
The FT index on June 30th was 4249 so not all that far out.
What is fascinating is seeing how perceptions changed. I wonder if we’ll do better in 2010.
Part 2 of the projections over the weekend.