Is the “30pc or more” the bet for “swing-back” believers

Is the “30pc or more” the bet for “swing-back” believers


Should you be piling on at 13/8?

Given recent polls and the widespread belief that government’s always recover as we get closer to the election date then the 30% plus segment in PaddyPower’s Labour percentage vote market seems an absolute snip.

The 13/8 is a pretty good price given that all you are betting is that the final vote percentage is above that.

    Note, and we will be repeating this a lot in the coming weeks and months, this market is about Great Britain ONLY. There will be other percentage markets which include the whole of the UK including NI and you have to be careful not to mislead yourself.

Me? I want more time and more evidence before risking any cash – even at 13/8. A concern is that many polling respondents, I believe, say “Labour” when they mean “Not Tory” – which is one of the reasons why Brown’s party is usually over-stated.

It is often said that January polls before an election are the best guide and there is something in that. If Labour is sustaining a position in the 30s across a range of pollsters then the bet might be tempting – but then, I guess, the price will have tightened.

Mike Smithson

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