So what do the “PB 131” think about 2010?

So what do the “PB 131” think about 2010?

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Your predictions revealed Many thanks to everyone who took part in the PB 2010 Prediction Competition hosted by The Election Game, with a turnout 31% up on 2009. The full summary predictions and player-by-player detail are available here, but these are the headline numbers. UK General Election Con 348 Lab 215 LD 54 Con maj 46 Labour Leader at Xmas Ed Miliband 24% David Miliband 20% Harriet Harman 19% Alan Johnson 7% There are more potential Labour leadership candidates, plus…

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Do these 1992 approval ratings hold the key?

Do these 1992 approval ratings hold the key?

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Should we be waiting for the MORI January numbers? So in the past week we have had two telephone polls, Populus and ComRes, showing sharpish moves to the Tories while the two online polls have either reported no change (Angus Reid) or Labour moving up a notch and the Tories moving down (YouGov). Given that one, last night’s YouGov had the gap close to, as they say, “hung parliament territory” what is going on and could the election, after all,…

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Tories move up four in first ComRes poll of the year

Tories move up four in first ComRes poll of the year

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UPDATED 2030 CON 42 % (38) LAB 29 % (29) LD 19 %(19) The first of tonight’s polls is good for the Tories? A new ComnRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and will bring some cheer to Cameron Towers and might add to the gloom within Brown Central. There’s been a straight four point switch from “others” to the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dem remaining static. This is the second of two recent polls…

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How much will the debates help push turnout?

How much will the debates help push turnout?

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Is it worth 3/1 that it’ll exceed 70%? PaddyPower have now joined Ladbrokes in opening up a turnout market. Both are making 65 – 69.9% the favourite though the Irish bookmaker is being more generous if you think it will top 70%. It has 3/1 against this option compared with the Ladbrokes 9/4. I’m quite taken with the notion that we’ll see a significant increase on the 60% of 2005. This coming election looks set to produce only the second…

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Could he be the Two Month PM?

Could he be the Two Month PM?

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Might it be the shortest-lived ministry since Wellington? As one of pbc’s more regular posters has reminded us more than once, there doesn’t need to be much slippage in the Tory lead to turn the current projected overall majority into minority territory and while it remains odds-on with all bookies that the Conservatives will win outright, the best odds on No Overall Majority are just 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Let’s suppose for the moment that the Conservatives win the largest number of…

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MORI Poll: Teachers prefer Labour

MORI Poll: Teachers prefer Labour

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But is the trend bad news for Brown’s party? In the coming month or so we are likely to see many more polls like this which seek to find out the political preferences of specific professional groups. This, from MORI, is based on a survey of 1,000 teachers in England and Wales with the fieldwork taking place over a five week period towards the end of last year. It’s hard to know what to make of it though it does…

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Is this supposed to be an improvement?

Is this supposed to be an improvement?

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What have they done to the Ladbrokes site? I don’t know whether it’s just me but I’m finding that the new Ladbrokes site is a total pain in the backside. It takes you so long to find the bets the you want and it’s so much more awkward to navigate. With the ever-sharp Shadsy running the politics markets the firm had been carving out a nice position in the political betting sector. But that now seems to have been put…

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Is this how Iraq could play out during the campaign?

Is this how Iraq could play out during the campaign?

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Question Time BBC1 – Click to watch Was Hain’s discomfiture a taste of what’s to come? Anybody who followed the previous thread will have got a taste of the passions and anger that were aroused by the discussion on Labour and Iraq on last night’s BBC Question Time programme. It takes up the first twenty minutes and is well worth watching. Already it has prompted that arch-Blair defender, the Indy’s John Rentoul, to blog with his misgiving about how the…

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