How much will the debates help push turnout?
Is it worth 3/1 that it’ll exceed 70%?
Both are making 65 – 69.9% the favourite though the Irish bookmaker is being more generous if you think it will top 70%. It has 3/1 against this option compared with the Ladbrokes 9/4.
I’m quite taken with the notion that we’ll see a significant increase on the 60% of 2005. This coming election looks set to produce only the second change of government in 31 years and my sense is that there’s a lot more interest than, certainly, 2001 and 2005.
The very fact that Labour might lose power and the Tories might gain it should be a big driver.
Add onto that the TV debates which will be hyped like crazy right across the media and you could see a big increase.
There’s also the experience of the 2009 EU elections where in those region where you could make a comparison there were quite big increases.
Getting to 70% might be stretching it – but that 3/1 looks good value.