How much will the debates help push turnout?

How much will the debates help push turnout?

Is it worth 3/1 that it’ll exceed 70%?

PaddyPower have now joined Ladbrokes in opening up a turnout market.

Both are making 65 – 69.9% the favourite though the Irish bookmaker is being more generous if you think it will top 70%. It has 3/1 against this option compared with the Ladbrokes 9/4.

I’m quite taken with the notion that we’ll see a significant increase on the 60% of 2005. This coming election looks set to produce only the second change of government in 31 years and my sense is that there’s a lot more interest than, certainly, 2001 and 2005.

The very fact that Labour might lose power and the Tories might gain it should be a big driver.

Add onto that the TV debates which will be hyped like crazy right across the media and you could see a big increase.

There’s also the experience of the 2009 EU elections where in those region where you could make a comparison there were quite big increases.

Getting to 70% might be stretching it – but that 3/1 looks good value.

Mike Smithson

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