What’s Massachusetts going to do Obama’s re-election chances?

What’s Massachusetts going to do Obama’s re-election chances?

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CNN Could be become a one-term president? The big overnight political news from the US was the dramatic loss by the Democrats of the Senate seat in Massachusetts that had been held by Edward Kennedy. Inevitably pundits are looking forward to to 2012 and asking whether this means that his chances have got worse. Before that, of course, he has to go through this November’s mid-terms which traditionally can prove challenging for the White House incumbent. It will also make…

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Massachusetts live thread

Massachusetts live thread

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Will it be a Democrat disaster in the Bay State? UPDATE: Massachusetts called for Brown (GOP) Boston Globe town-by-town results Vote count from AP Politico RCP Live Blog CNN feed Double Carpet

So Big Ben strikes ten on May 6th

So Big Ben strikes ten on May 6th

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Will this mark the start of a change of government? The polls will close. Then all the TV and radio news channels will announce the first details of the exit poll that MORI have been carrying out throughout the day and which will have been processed and analysed by Professors Curice, Thrasher and Rallings. Over the next few hours results from about half the constituencies – the rest will be counted on the Friday. At what stage will the picture…

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Introducing Morus’s (aka Greg Callus) General Election guide

Introducing Morus’s (aka Greg Callus) General Election guide

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Amazon.co.uk Widgets This is being launched in London tonight and is well worth the £10.68 that Amazon will charge you for the paper-back. The lead editor was Greg Callus, known to PBers as MORUS, and I wrote one of the chapters. The team have done a great job in producing something that will be looked at time and time again in the coming months. Well done Greg- you deserve to feel very proud. Mike Smithson

Are these now going to get really squeezed?

Are these now going to get really squeezed?

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Do the latest polls show it’s the end of the “others”? The dominating feature of the polls since last June’s Euro elections was that “others” – mainly GRN/BNP/UKIP – looked set to take a significant shares. These three parties together with PC/SNP in Wales and Scotland secured about 8% of GB vote in 2005. In some polls in the past few months this has touched 18% and a big question has been whether the Tories or Labour are being hit…

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What does this say about voter motivation?

What does this say about voter motivation?

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PoliticsHome Is this the product of being in power for 13 years? I don’t quite know what to make of this poll from PoliticsHome – the politics website and quasi polling organisation that has yet to join the British Polling Council. Inevitably when you’ve been at the helm for a fairly long time then there will have been a whole lot of disappointments on the policy front. But I just wonder what these numbers say about the motivation of party…

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Will they view things differently in the English Towns?

Will they view things differently in the English Towns?

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Amber Valley – 6.3% Barrow and Furness – 6.6% Basildon South & East Thurrock – 5.6% Batley and Spen – 6.7% Bedford – 4% Blackpool North and Cleveleys – 4.2% Bolton North East – 6% Bolton West – 5.9% Brigg and Goole – 3.9% Brighton Kemptown – 2.4% Brighton Pavilion – 6.6% Broxtowe – 2.2% Burton – 2.4% Bury North – 2.5% Calder Valley – 1.4% Carlisle – 6.7% Chatham and Aylesford – 4.1% Chester – 1.1% Cleethorpes – 3% Colne Valley – 1.3% Copeland – 6.6% Corby – 1.6% Crawley – 0.05% Derbyshire South – 2.7% Dewsbury – 4.4% Dorset South – 1.8% Dover –…

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Could Labour be being understated in the polls?

Could Labour be being understated in the polls?

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Guardian Might the Labour bias corrections have gone too far? The Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, raises an interesting question this morning – could all the measures that have been made in recent years to correct the systemic pro-Labour polling bias have gone too far? And if that’s the case then could this offer a glimmer of hope for Brown’s party as it sees the Tories staying in the 40s looking on course for victory? For unlike any previous election…

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